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 Moderated by: bartmanaz Page:    1  2  Next Page Last Page  
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An interesting weather event approaches  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 12:06 am
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Hook
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It certainly appears that we are going to get significant, even substantial, rain over the next 36 hours, according to my calculations.


The SWesterly flow of the past 12-18 hours looks like it will accelerate due to an approaching low off the west coast of the U.S. More moisture will be drawn up.


And there's a big batch of moisture (non-meteorological term) down there off the SW coast of Baja, extending due west of the mainland. This storm could drop anywhere from 15-50mm of rain (3/4-2in).


It's generally warm moisture, of course. 


I dont think we will see any major winds, as there arent any thunderstorms embedded in the moisture bank. And no real heating this time of year to generate the orographic lift needed in this area. 


The Sierras might see some, but I dont think we have enough mountain lift near us to create thunderstorms, at this time of year.


When will it get here? Looks like the chance of rain is above 50% from around 0200 Wednesday AM to around 0600 on Thursday AM. Chance of rain is much lower around the traditional Turkey Pig Out times of 1200-1800. So, there's that.


Not that any amount of rain will stop me from my appointed oink-oink.


For you gardeners like me, see about capturing as much of this rainwater as you can. It is far superior for plants, compared to the stuff coming through our pipes. Move the pots out into it, as well.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 03:07 am
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Bullshipper
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Hurricane force winds in Oregon, 35' seas, "bomb cyclone"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bomb-cyclone-drench-bay-area-192348188.html

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 11:37 am
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frankie
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hook good call, 4:30 am Wednesday, it's raining here on the far west end!

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 12:07 pm
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MARIGOT
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Yeah, it started here on the Caracol Peninsula around that time, certainly before 5 am.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 03:07 pm
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Hook
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I'm showing 0.69 in or about 15mm, as of this writing. I got my first recorded rainfall at 0336.  When I last looked at chance of rain yesterday, that was somewhere around 80%. So, Weather Underground was pretty accurate.

It appears interaction with the Baja Peninsula, or some other influence, IS causing some thunderstorms to form in the cloud mass. All of these, right now, are still west of Baja and quite a ways south of us.

The predominate circulation of this appears to indicate that the bulk of these thunderstorms will enter the mainland between Ciudad Obregon and Culiacan.

But there are a lot of embedded thunderstorms behind the front moving down the west coast of the U.S. It's too hard to predict if those will get there. If they do, possibly Friday.

So, any thunderstorm activity we might experience in the next 2-4 hours is probably spontaneously formed from the moisture mass that is now here.

Last edited on Wed Nov 27th, 2019 09:17 pm by Hook

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 07:55 pm
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Fairwind
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Thanks for posting this Hook...Very unusual weather for this time of year...Is this our "Winter rain ?"

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 08:46 pm
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frankie
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this is the longest continual rain fall i have seen, not associated to a hurricane!
 where i am at it has been a normal rain changing to a drizzle back to normal rain all day long!

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 09:23 pm
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Hook
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I think we actually had even more rain, in one continuous shot, only last year in the winter. I think it was December. Cant remember. But I believe it exceeded 2 in or approx 50mm. This one could still get there. I am showing 1.46 in or about 37mm.

But I do remember commenting last year that it was unusual for a Pacific storm to dump that much. This is more of a tropical event being drawn up by an approaching low. This is not your traditional event that came here from the Gulf of Alaska and moved down the coast.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 09:37 pm
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MARIGOT
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Well, had I known it was going to be this windy today, I probably would have moved some patio furniture.  So now the rocking chairs are going to town with the 25 MPH winds up here.
My rain gauge shows 1.30” at 2:30 pm.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 09:37 pm
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Fairwind
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Sailflow predicts gale force winds later on tonight, out of the south....

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 09:45 pm
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Hook
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Yeah, the wind is certainly here. Not sure why.

Could be the approaching low is accelerating towards the advancing low or we are close enough to a occluded front that we have the potential for t-storms.

I have clocked gusts to 17 knots at my house but it is generally around 6-10 knots right now.


I should add that my anemometer is somewhat protected from wind from this direction, by my bodega. I think I have observed gusts up to around 25.

Last edited on Wed Nov 27th, 2019 10:11 pm by Hook

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 10:39 pm
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Scmateo
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In the Country Club 1.30" so far.  Wind blowing pretty consistent 15-17 mph & highest gust so far 28 mph.

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 11:30 pm
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guzzi
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Well F-troop got 1.5 inches so far as of 4:30 pm

Last edited on Wed Nov 27th, 2019 11:30 pm by guzzi

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 Posted: Wed Nov 27th, 2019 11:33 pm
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Hook
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I'm at 1.51.

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 03:33 am
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Hook
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Now 2.10.


Had a period around 2015 when it was raining in excess of 2.00 inches/hour.

Last edited on Thu Nov 28th, 2019 04:00 am by Hook

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 03:51 am
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frankie
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i drove into town about 7:00 pm, it has now been raining for about 18 hours! the soil is saturated and we are now starting see runoff! i can't imagine what we will encounter tomorrow if the rains continue!

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 04:22 am
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Hook
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The leading edge of the cold front coming down from CA is still heading SE, and occupies a line drawn from about San Quintin, Baja, then NE to about Golfo de Santa Clara in Sonora. The air behind the cold front has embedded t-storms and air that is about 10-15 degrees F below the warm air ahead of it (including San Carlos).

It's hard to say how much it will displace our 70F air. Should arrive around mid morning.

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 01:05 pm
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Hook
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Still coming down this AM, after about 6-8 hours with no rain. Add another 0.36 inches to yesterday's total of around 2.10.


I am showing totals for this week at 2.95, and for the month at 3.05. 

Last edited on Thu Nov 28th, 2019 01:14 pm by Hook

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 01:58 pm
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guzzi
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As of 6:45 am 2.75 inches of rain total at F-Troop (last northern block on F)

Last edited on Thu Nov 28th, 2019 01:59 pm by guzzi

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 Posted: Thu Nov 28th, 2019 02:02 pm
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MARIGOT
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On the east side of the Caracol Peninsula 2.72” yesterday, .49” this morning so far.


Power was out from 5:45 to 6:45 am today.

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