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 Moderated by: bartmanaz  
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oppie
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Thinking about selling my house in the Ranchitos. Just wondering what the market is like this year. Thanks

nice guy
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Same as always. If the price is too high, you'll continue to own it.

jsprag
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Nice Guy is spot on.

TrueBlue
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Nice guy is completely on point. Price solves everything.

Get a good, honest agent. Trust what they tell you regarding the value of your home. Get at least 2 opinions, preferably 3. If you don't like what they say, don't get mad, and don't sell your house. If you want it to sell, list it for the price recommended by your agent.

I won't indicate here who I would recommend, as it's a small town and I don't want to hurt feelings nor do I want others to feel like I'm advertising (I'm not an agent), but I have a strong opinion regarding agents in the area. PM me if you want to know who I would recommend.

Ian948
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You need to determine how quickly you want to sell and know your lowest number you would accept.


If you monitor the mls you can watch similar properties and how long sometimes it takes to sell , I have seen properties sit for years ......


On a hands on example , I determined we would sell in Sept 18 , priced very aggressively , excellent agent , good marketing , many showings - but no firm offers. First offer in Feb 19 - so low I chocked on my coffee , however ended up dickering to a mid point and sold.


Point is , We were moving to Spain and wanted to clear everything quickly - so we took a large hit, if time had not been my main issue then we would have held out longer and taken a smaller hit !


Everyone will have different criteria , remember a property is only worth what someone will pay for it . We have no regrets as we had 10 wonderful years in SC , losses on real estate were just a cost of that enjoyment. Also we never viewed our purchases in Mx as investments fiscally , rather lifestyle cost.


:)






TrueBlue
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Ian's advice of monitoring the MLS is also very good advice. Keep in mind when monitoring that the 2 most important things are:

1. What was the *selling* price? Listing price means nothing.

2. How many days on market? In the US, if it has been on the market 30 days and no solid offers, your house is overpriced. In San Carlos, it's longer than that, I would say as long as 6 months, maybe as short as 3 months, before a price change should be considered.

Last edited on Sat Nov 9th, 2019 04:21 pm by TrueBlue

diver45
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I highly recommend Tammi Miller from Vive real estate. Very knowledgeable and fair.

long time resident
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TrueBlue, Properties in the states? In Tucson, you can price your property right, and it can sit on the market for a few months....depends on the price range that you are in, and also the time of year, and location. I have put listings on the market that I thought would take about a month and have gone under contract the same day. I have had others that just sit, even tho the price is right. A few factors come into play, and it only takes one person to walk in, and say it is the right one for them.

jsprag
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If you get no activity after 3 months it's overpriced. Personal attachment and what you paid for it is meaningless to buyers. Also putting a unrealistic asking price in hopes to find that special unique buyer is unwise. It will likely languish on the market leaving all parties wondering "what's wrong with that property". My point is one needs to research and price the property objectively and it will sell.

Last edited on Sat Nov 9th, 2019 08:41 pm by jsprag

TrueBlue
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Long Term Resident....


Perhaps I should have clarified by being more specific about what area of the states.  I'm in southern California where things are ridiculous......

frankie
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all real estate markets have their ebbs and flows, San Carlos is no different!
prior to 2008 the market here was hot in every price range!
have you ever heard the old adage "you can't build a million dollar home in a hundred thousand dollar neighborhood and expect to get your return back???? you see that all over San Carlos!


there are very few track type homes here most are custom in every price range and every neighborhood level! so it is difficult to get a CMA!!
for approximately 4 years the market up to about $150,000. has been fair, anything on the beach selling at asking prices, and many many times over a million!


so then you have the market OVER $150,000 NOT ON THE BEACH! THAT MARKET HAS BEEN STAGNATE FOR NEARLY A DECADE! many quality beautiful homes, many in gated communities! ALL ON THE MARKET FOR YEARS!!!


also in these last 4 years the demographics has drastically changed, now the predominate buyers are Mexican citizens!


i know what i am talking about, i was a licensed real estate agent in Arizona for 33 years and have been a contractor for 40 years, 18 of those years here! i have bought and sold DOZENS of properties here! i am in the trenches not an armchair speculator!!!


the forecast for the coming real estate  market, IMHO is bleak!!!!!
there are to many negative factors that need to be resolved before San Carlos returns to a vibrate pre 2008 market!

Last edited on Sat Nov 9th, 2019 09:51 pm by frankie

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I would try with an agent that advertises to Mexican buyers over the american clientel.

TrueBlue
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Ideally the agent would market to both.  The Mexican market is at least equally as important as the American/Canadian market at this point.  This should be taken into consideration when doing a remodel or staging.

Bullshipper
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I believe that the increased amount of crime reporting on the English speaking forums and newspapers will hurt the homeowners selling prospects in San Carlos for quite sometime.

frankie
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Bullshipper wrote: I believe that the increased amount of crime reporting on the English speaking forums and newspapers will hurt the homeowners selling prospects in San Carlos for quite sometime.

you are spot on!!!


lets not forget the water issue!


90/95% of the purchases and building is from Mexican citizens!


in all probability the properties listed from people from NOB, will be listed from selling agents from NOB. 
the buying agents will most likely be Mexican agents!


an observation is there appears to be more of a market in new builds as opposed to resale!

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One thing I know of that is hurting selling a house in SC is the water problems which is very little water coming in.

Don
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Frankie,  your 90%-95% number is highly inflated.  Don't know where you are getting your numbers from.  

kiteboarder
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Bullshipper wrote: I believe that the increased amount of crime reporting on the English speaking forums and newspapers will hurt the homeowners selling prospects in San Carlos for quite sometime.

So, it isn't the increased crime, it's the increased reporting of crime. 


Got it!

frankie
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Don wrote: Frankie,  your 90%-95% number is highly inflated.  Don't know where you are getting your numbers from.  Don, your not the only agent i know! many of the developers direct sales are not being reported for your statistics!
you may have taken me out of context! "building and purchases!
you can also reverse that percentage and place on the sellers, 90/95% are from NOB!

so back it down to 85/90% !! 
regardless of the percentage, the Mexicans are the largest consumer!

Last edited on Sun Nov 10th, 2019 04:56 pm by frankie

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Yes there is increased reporting of crime, but there is- and has been based on my 14 yrs here- much more "stealth" crime. Many more audacious "no fear" thieves who enter houses in the daytime when the owner/s are busy working in the back yard, or in the shower, or afternoon nap. And very few of these thefts are reported. I just found out that my next door neighbor was robbed while working in the back garden, they walked in the open back door, picked up wallet and laptop and walked out the front door. You leave a garage door open here and it's seen as an open invitation to a free, take what you want, garage "sale". And 3 weeks later you go looking for something, and can't find it. I think neighbor watch groups should fund neighborhood protection services. Break a few arms and that neighborhood would be protected.

jsprag
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Crime, domestic water, refuse pick up, road maintenance etc are all factors that enter into a persons decision to make Mexico their primary or secondary home . If a person is not willing to accept the previous statement, price is irrelevant.

These topics have been the object of discussion for the 12 yrs I have lived here. Still San Carlos carries on and new families continue make San Carlos their home.

Strangely, I read few reports on these boards of whats right with San Carlos and why we are here. For example, most recently the much improved Hwy from Nogales and the HMO bypass. Conversely we seem to dwell hysterically on its short comings and lament for the good old days. I for one do not understand the benefit in this, yet I keep reading them just the same. Perhaps that's a sign I am just getting old.

Bullshipper
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kiteboarder wrote: Bullshipper wrote: I believe that the increased amount of crime reporting on the English speaking forums and newspapers will hurt the homeowners selling prospects in San Carlos for quite sometime.

So, it isn't the increased crime, it's the increased reporting of crime. 


Got it!


Obviously there is more crime. But there is not one Spanish speaking forum here in SC that I know of, so I think the US news, combined with constant barrage of social media and forum stories about it effect the English speaking retirees more than the Mexican buyers that have fewer options as to where they can settle and what they can afford. And I think Mexicans are better equipped to enjoy themselves in Mexico than most Anglos.


Got it?

kiteboarder
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Bullshipper, the number of readers of the two English forums pales in comparison to the number of Spanish speaking people that read the newspapers and listen to the constant barrage on the radio stations. The people that I know also share news through WhatsApp and Facebook more than we do. They are well aware of the problems. But, you are right that they have fewer options. And, I believe that Mexicans are better at enjoying themselves, period.


Oh yeah, I got it.

maryt
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Doesn´t it seem like middle or upper class Mexicans buying homes here are often buying 2nd homes and often come from Ciudad Obregón or Hermosillo. Both those cities have more problems with violence than we do.

Bullshipper
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maryt wrote: Doesn´t it seem like middle or upper class Mexicans buying homes here are often buying 2nd homes and often come from Ciudad Obregón or Hermosillo. Both those cities have more problems with violence than we do.

??


Boy, I would say that the the serious crime is much worse now in Guaymas and Empalme than its ever been in Hermosillo or Obregon in total number of incidents and crimes per capita. I lived in Hermosillo for 18 years in the late 70-90's and spend most of my weekends there now with family.


I hear very little nervous chatter from my Mexican friends and politicians, and I really believe that fear is still not a significant factor for Mexican home buyers.


But every american I speak to in the states they immediately bring up how I am constant danger and nuts to be here, and this has been the case since the late 80's. 


Pena Nieto and Televisa had a vigorous campain to squelch most of the crime stories during his sixenio, but the US press will run ongoing stories for weeks about the same incident.


But AMLO has backed off the strategy of keying on cartel bosses, and they are freer to roam and destroy than ever before. And releasing all the prisoners recently from jail is not being equated with more crime, but I personally think its directly related.

Bullshipper
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kiteboarder wrote: Bullshipper, the number of readers of the two English forums pales in comparison to the number of Spanish speaking people that read the newspapers and listen to the constant barrage on the radio stations. The people that I know also share news through WhatsApp and Facebook more than we do. They are well aware of the problems. But, you are right that they have fewer options. And, I believe that Mexicans are better at enjoying themselves, period.


Oh yeah, I got it.


I think the US press is filled with crime stories about Mexico Don. Then when they come here to rent and look around, the see attractive prices, nice folks, but read the English forums and socail media too. They they go back to the states to mull over their buying options and everyone their says why put yourself in danger, because they read its so bad around here.


You live here, so tell me, are you afraid for your life and property, even now, when its really out of control? Me? I personally trust looking out my window to see if its going to rain over a forecast published in Boulder Colorado.

frankie
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Bullshipper wrote;

You live here, so tell me, are you afraid for your life and property, even now, when its really out of control? Me? 


for me, i am a lot more wary of my surroundings!
 i saw the bodies up close shot on beltrones across from the pemex, a few years back. i saw the taco lady right after she was shot! i drove into the code red when the cops where shot! ya that makes you think!!!!
this is HOME, and as i stated, there really isn't a MARKET in the price range my house would be in, so i can't just bail out!
i haven't had any groups of dove hunters, wanting to go hunting! so fear could be a contributing factor!
at 67, i figure i lived a good life, if it's my time, it's my time!







Last edited on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 01:42 am by frankie

jsprag
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#27 weary or wary?

frankie
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oops! corrected


do i regret these 18 years here in San Carlos?? NOOOOO!!!
it has been a great time in my life!
i am sorry to see what it has evolved into, but young enough to have hope for change!!

Last edited on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 01:48 am by frankie

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The Mormon incident (for lack of a better description) is still getting HUGE daily coverage in the US.  As I type this, I'm watching a story on it on Good Morning America.  The family is (understandably) talking about how much the security situation has deteriorated.  It's on every network.  The timing of this incident after the Culiacan incident has made the coverage overwhelming.

Americans' fear of Mexico travel has been present for at least a decade.  That's when comments from friends about our safety in Mexico and their refusal/reluctance to join us as a result became pretty consistent and also when we noticed our short-term vacation rentals at our house start to drop.  The short-term rentals completely dried up 5 years ago.  I really don't think comments on forums have any impact whatsoever.  It's how the situation is portrayed in the news north of the border, and especially the non-stop "Mexico is evil and full of violent cartels/people" coverage on Fox News and from Trump which targets the same demographic who are the non-Mexican homebuyers in San Carlos (older white retirees or near-retirees).

The rapidly escalating violence in Guaymas, Empalme and (now) to a lesser extent Obregon is probably not on the radar of most potential buyers.  A simple search of "am I safe in San Carlos", which is the exact wording I think most San Carlos buyers would use, isn't overly concerning.  However, a search of "am I safe in Guaymas", which is the second search I think most San Carlos buyers would do, turns up more concerning things, but still doesn't accurately portray just how bad it is in Guaymas and Empalme.

San Carlos with its large ex-pat population is still an island of relative safety, likely as a result of cartels not wanting American media attention, which brings increased government enforcement.  But the incident in Culiacan followed quickly by the Mormon incident and a lack of effective government intervention is a game changer which will likely only serve to embolden the cartels.  The informal "don't harm Americans" policy seems to have changed, and that's going to affect things far more than anything else which has happened in the past.

So while I strongly feel that San Carlos is currently safe for Americans/Canadians as long as you are relatively sober, don't screw anybody over in a financial transaction and you're not involved in buying or selling drugs, nobody has a crystal ball as to what the future holds.  The security situation in the entire country is rapidly deteriorating, just not too much in San Carlos.  We recently had a conversation with a Mexican Mexico City resident who told us we should not visit Mexico City right now due to the crime levels, and that his father sent him to the US due to fears of kidnapping.  It's crime throughout Mexico that has Americans concerned and will kill the market for American homebuyers.  Home sales and prices in San Carlos (yeah, I still keep track) seem to be at about the same level as they have been for years as Mexican buyers make up for the loss of non-Mexican buyers.

The bottom line is that fears of the bottom dropping out of the San Carlos real estate market due to the loss of American buyers aren't very realistic as there are more Mexican buyers out there.  I would only start to worry if the Mexican/global economy went into the toilet.

Last edited on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 04:20 pm by TrueBlue

frankie
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TrueBlue wrote:
Americans' fear of Mexico travel has been present for at least a decade.  That's when comments from friends about our safety in Mexico and their refusal/reluctance to join us as a result became pretty consistent and also when we noticed our short-term vacation rentals at our house start to drop.  The short-term rentals completely dried up 5 years ago.  I really don't think comments on forums have any impact whatsoever.  It's how the situation is portrayed in the news north of the border, and especially the non-stop "Mexico is evil and full of violent cartels/people" coverage on Fox News and from Trump which targets the same demographic who are the non-Mexican homebuyers in San Carlos (older white retirees or near-retirees).

nobody has a crystal ball as to what the future holds.  The security situation in the entire country is rapidly deteriorating, just not too much in San Carlos.  

The bottom line is that fears of the bottom dropping out of the San Carlos real estate market due to the loss of American buyers aren't very realistic as there are more Mexican buyers out there.  I would only start to worry if the Mexican/global economy went into the toilet.
trueblue, this was well written!
i don't think anybody has expressed or feels "the bottom dropping out of the San Carlos real estate"! most savvy investors are aware of ebbs and flows, peaks and valleys! 


i have stated that the demographics have noticeably change over the last 4 years! 
the predominate buyers are Mexican citizens! MOST coming from Hermosillo and Obregon! these new buyers are basically the same as the old NOB buyers, THEY ARE USUALLY for 2nd/vacation homes!
 
there was a post on an other thread, stating high percentage of the massive growth in Hermosillo comes from cartel money! the assumption could also be made here!

Last edited on Tue Nov 12th, 2019 05:21 pm by frankie

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As long as my kiteboarding beach stays open and the wind blows, I'm content. I live in San Carlos, not Guaymas proper or Empalme. Most of the Mexicans that are looking to escape the violence in their cities are also looking to buy in San Carlos, not Guaymas nor Empalme.

My best friend lives in Ciudad Obregon and he is about to move with his wife and four children to San Carlos, primarily to be in a safer place.

What better option does he have?

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The announcement came out that Mexico is now in a recession.

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This thread was about what the market is like. I think this winter season will tell if there is a difference in visitors. It seems like new buyers are developed after spending a few winters here. My observation without facts is that Mexican citizens are buying ocean front and properties on the Algodones side more than nicer homes in the Ranchitos. In any market, over priced homes do not sell. In this market I think you have to price a home below replacement cost unless the location is special.

frankie
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RichD wrote: This thread was about what the market is like. I think this winter season will tell if there is a difference in visitors. It seems like new buyers are developed after spending a few winters here. My observation without facts is that Mexican citizens are buying ocean front and properties on the Algodones side more than nicer homes in the Ranchitos. In any market, over priced homes do not sell. In this market I think you have to price a home below replacement cost unless the location is special.rich, there are at least 2 of us who believe what you just posted! 
a majority of all the new start homes are occurring where you described! subdivisions which have been here for about 20 years are filling their remaining lots with new homes, primarily with Mexican buyers!
the existing developers and new ones are finishing the infrastructure for completely new subdivisions! these where all contemplated and started only a few years back.
  
what the market will be finishing this year, is certain. what it will be for the coming years will only be speculation! what is profoundly evident is the Mexican buyer is the strongest prospect!


* there is still our biggest unresolved problem of water!
* our electrical substation is probably not up to the task of all these new homes
* west of the Bajia all the sewage is on private systems
* bullshipper is indicating Mexico is in recession, googling it only verifies his post!





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nice guy
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I just got a reliable quote on a new 2 BD 2BA house - us$70/sf

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When we bought our house through a local RE firm, we wired the money straight to the US sellers bank account and at the same time he signed the closing documents and we were given the keys. This felt safe for both sides.

How would that transaction go if selling to a Mexican? Would proceeds be in pesos and transferred only into a local bank account? Or would their bank convert the funds to US dollars to wire to sellers account. And do you feel using a real estate company focused on Mexican clients would be as safe?

Selling in pesos is intriguing IF you bought your property when the dollar was high and sold at an appreciably lower exchange rate. I did this in another country not even realizing the enormous benefit until it was time to exchange the house sale proceeds to US dollars.

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emc2 wrote:
Selling in pesos is intriguing IF you bought your property when the dollar was high and sold at an appreciably lower exchange rate. I did this in another country not even realizing the enormous benefit until it was time to exchange the house sale proceeds to US dollars.
it has been the custom to list and sell properties in dollars! i assume because of the stability of the dollar opposed to the constant fluctuation of the peso!
the system has it's plus and minuses!
example;
 $100,000. usd in the early 2000's was 10/1, $100,000. usd X 10 = 1,000,000. pesos.
today $100,000. usd X 19 = 1,900,000 pesos
if you paid $100,000. usd and it was recorded as 1,000,000 pesos and sold your property for the same amount today at $100,000. or 1,900,000. pesos it looks like you made a gain of 900,000. pesos!
the savvy notarios have charts to help!


i would never buy or sell in pesos, the conversion can be left at the time of the sale to the notarios, for recording purposes!


i have paid and been paid in my real estate transactions almost every way, bank transfers, cashiers checks, personal checks, American title companies, ALL IN USD!


MANY BUYERS AND SELLERS DO NOT REALIZE THAT THE USE OF AN AMERICAN TITLE COMPANY CAN BE USED HERE, FOR THE EARNEST MONIES, AND FINAL DEPOSITS!
IT IS THE SAFEST AND MOST SECURE WAY!

Last edited on Thu Nov 14th, 2019 03:32 pm by bartmanaz

will rogers
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$70 sq/ft. Location? How much for the lot?

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will rogers wrote: $70 sq/ft. Location? How much for the lot?

GREAT POINT!! square foot price is as ambiguous as going to a restaurant and asking what's for dinner!


apples with apples, oranges with oranges!

chucklesg
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It is a shame that quality projects in San Carlos, like Loma Del Mar, with 24/7 security, reliable water and trash removal, also suffer from the same maladies that plague other resales. Perhaps it is the Grossman's reputation that scares folks away, but if that can be ignored, LDM can be a good choice.

nice guy
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He built my current house and 100+ more here. So I know his style and he knows my expectations. He doesn't build Taj Mahal's and I don't need a Buckingham Palace.

Restaurant huh? It's more like a great cook asks you to their house for dinner. You don't ask what's for dinner. You don't need to. You know they're a great cook and what they choose to make for dinner will be excellent.

The lot is whatever you choose. From about us$10k on up.

So an 800 sf house (56k) on a 10k lot is $66k plus trust, util hookup, etc. Add a carport and driveway and enjoy. And that's city water, sewer, cfe elect, Tel,

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LDM has some great benefits, including my friendly widow, the pool, etc. But as an "asset purchase" - it's not smart. It's a lease - you have no asset unless it has a license plates and can be driven/towed away. No pay the lease, and no "buyers" = they own it all. Not smart.

Last edited on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 01:42 am by nice guy

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frankie wrote:

GREAT POINT!! square foot price is as ambiguous as going to a restaurant and asking what's for dinner!


apples with apples, oranges with oranges!


niceguy, i have dealt with armchair experts as you all my 40 year career! if you are comfortable in "infonavit"style housing i am happy for you!
 most of the readers are well aware of costs and  the actual variations of getting a square foot prices. building on owned lot, buying lot and building, selling existing properties !! ALL DIFFERENT SQUARE FOOT PRICES, THE BOTTOM LINE, IS THE COST!

Last edited on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 02:53 am by frankie

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There were over 800 mls listings 3 years ago in SC, and there were less than 300 recently. New housing tracks have sold out quickly too. But as we have a lot of retirees, large numbers of homes come on the market yearly and depress prices.

Last edited on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 04:24 am by Bullshipper

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Nice Guy, beg to differ. After bouncing around San Carlos, renting, etc., for 13 years, we purchased in Loma del Mar, lived there for 13 years, and SOLD our place for nearly the same amount we had paid for it in 1990. Sure, we paid a monthly fee which covered all the amenities, but the place we lived in was ours.

nice guy
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Kathy, I thought it was clear that I was referring to the "leased" places. I guess not.


Secondly, what you paid in 1990 and what you sold for in 2003 - are different dollars in terms of purchasing power and reflect the impact of inflation. 


Between 1990 and 2003 there was about 45% inflation in terms of US$. So, if you paid us$100K in 1990 for a property and sold it in 2003 for us$145 - you got ALL your "money" back. If you sold it for almost the 100k - say 95k - you ended up losing about us$50k.

Last edited on Fri Nov 15th, 2019 11:06 pm by nice guy

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nice guy wrote: LDM has some great benefits, including my friendly widow, the pool, etc. But as an "asset purchase" - it's not smart. It's a lease - you have no asset unless it has a license plates and can be driven/towed away. No pay the lease, and no "buyers" = they own it all. Not smart.

there is NOTHING CLEAR about you ramblings, other than they are just that "ramblings:!!!

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Re #47 - ah yes, but I had 13 wonderful years of use and enjoyment of San Carlos and all it offers - I don't think the place owed me a dime!  Actually a total of 26 years, but 13 of them in Loma del Mar.  

Last edited on Sat Nov 16th, 2019 02:43 am by Kathy R

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13 years rent costs something too.

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We were interested in buying and actually tried an offer on a couple of occasions, but now have decided to keep on renting, not having to worry about a resale when the time comes. The negative publicity is a factor.

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I've never found anyplace I could live for free, even when I owned a farm and a home. Paid property taxes, irrigation fees, power bills, etc., and when we moved to town to a "senior housing" area, we own the house, but we pay monthly fees for the property and amenities, just as we did in Loma del Mar. And, just as it was there, we can sell the house whenever we want and leave.

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i had mortgages from the start of my adult life to about 48! proud of my accomplishments i have been mortgages free sense that age! now in my golden years, what i am paying in property taxes, HOA fees, "fidiocamisio". monthly utilities, monthly expenses / up keep. the bottom line for out going expenses is nearly the same as when i was mortgaged!
life is a bitch and then you die!

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You dont rent in LDM. For 13 years or 1. It's precluded. It's actually one of the drawbacks in buying in there, from an investing standpoint.

Even on the leased property (of which there is also direct ownership interspersed), people sell what they have for SOME amount. Sometimes less than they paid, sometimes more.

Renters walk away with nothing.

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It seems to me that the decision to rent or buy depends on your commitment to how long you intend to live in San Carlos and for how much of the year. Property is easy to buy, sometimes hard to sell. If your home is unoccupied for 6 months a year there is an increased risk of break ins. If you intend to live in SC full time for 5 years or more it makes sense to buy. If not, it is a crap shoot. Just an opinion of course.


It is not a given that property values will increase.  The real estate commission is an expense that does not mean much spread out over 5 years of more. 



Last edited on Sun Nov 17th, 2019 01:06 pm by RichD

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the attraction and the appeal! that is the driver for San Carlos! prior to 2008 San Carlos was very attractive and extremely appealing! the housing market had a stable appreciation growth rate, from 0 to about 1/2 a point, nearing 2008 about 1 point annually! those times where not effected by a 0 appreciation nor was there any NEGATIVE depreciation! there was little or any losses taken in sales prior to 2008, because of stable market! 


that made San Carlos ATTRACTIVE for investment with questionable financing, readily available NOB!! that is when WE entered the bubble, caused by unrealistic appreciation rates, exceeding a normal and stable 1/2 to 1 point annual appreciation rate! it was a title wave boom! the bubble exploded NOB and took the global economy down with it!


that leaves us were we are today, aging and failing infrastructure, questionable if any police security, causing increased crime! NO EASY OBTAINABLE FINANCING for home investment!


this is not going to be an easy or inexpensive or a short term fix! it is possible and most want it, but at times it also seems that we will never see the light at the end of the tunnel!


until these problems are resolved, San Carlos, IMHO will not be a safe and secure investment!

Last edited on Sun Nov 17th, 2019 06:26 pm by frankie

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It all depends on the buy price, location, water and he garbage service and security. I live in Solimar and have had offers to buy that are more than I paid. But I think I am lucky to be the exception

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frankie wrote: the attraction and the appeal! that is the driver for San Carlos! prior to 2008 San Carlos was very attractive and extremely appealing! the housing market had a stable appreciation growth rate, from 0 to about 1/2 a point, nearing 2008 about 1 point annually! those times where not effected by a 0 appreciation nor was there any NEGATIVE depreciation! there was little or any losses taken in sales prior to 2008, because of stable market! 


that made San Carlos ATTRACTIVE for investment with questionable financing, readily available NOB!! that is when WE entered the bubble, caused by unrealistic appreciation rates, exceeding a normal and stable 1/2 to 1 point annual appreciation rate! it was a title wave boom! the bubble exploded NOB and took the global economy down with it!


that leaves us were we are today, aging and failing infrastructure, questionable if any police security, causing increased crime! NO EASY OBTAINABLE FINANCING for home investment!


this is not going to be an easy or inexpensive or a short term fix! it is possible and most want it, but at times it also seems that we will never see the light at the end of the tunnel!


until these problems are resolved, San Carlos, IMHO will not be a safe and secure investment!


There was little if any losses taken prior to 2008 because the price of buying and building in the 70s, 80s, and 90s was so low, compared to where the appreciation went from 2002 on. It was NOT that stable a market from 2002-2008. There was significant appreciation occurring as part of the overall worldwide bubble. That's not my definition of stability. It was a volatile environment, just like in the States. But some of us made money in real estate in the run-up to 2008 and invested some of that money in San Carlos real estate.


I really thought the bubble burst was 2-3 years delayed in San Carlos. People could hold out for something close to their asking price because it is so cheap to hold onto property here, compared to the US or Canada.


One REALLY significant determining factor on sales in San Carlos is tied to the "waves" of successive retirees that eventually get too old to be away from their countries' health care and too old to deal with all the little inconveniences (now becoming much BIGGER inconveniences) of owning in Mexico.  


These waves have seemed to run in ten year cycles. People retire around 65:  become too old to deal with the inconveniences around 75. The death of a spouse around that age also occurs, and that is motivation for moving on. 


If they purchased before the bubble run-up, they could take a lot less than "market value" (not that the MLS in this town really indicates what market value is!) and still have turned a profit. 


But those days are ending. We are at the end of another ten year cycle;  a cycle where people generally bought high, for the first time in San Carlos' history. And the security and infrastructure issues in Mexico are strong motivators to sell even at a loss.


These security/infrastructure issues are probably why Mexicans are the vast majority of buyers. They are used to having water, sewer, garbage and crime problems from whence they came. Those problems might actually be better HERE than their THERE.


If you come from a country where these things generally work, it's harder to accept, even at the reduced costs. 


Seriously, what good is having really cheap water and garbage service if you can't get it anyway?

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Hook wrote:

There was little if any losses taken prior to 2008 because the price of buying and building in the 70s, 80s, and 90s was so low, compared to where the appreciation went from 2002 on. It was NOT that stable a market from 2002-2008. There was significant appreciation occurring as part of the overall worldwide bubble. That's not my definition of stability. It was a volatile environment, just like in the States. But some of us made money in real estate in the run-up to 2008 and invested some of that money in San Carlos real estate.



granted the prices where lower in 70s. 80s. 90s! but there is far more aggressive development and building going on in the last 5 years here! than previous peaks!
how many people are the original owners of these 70s, 80s, 90s homes! as you stated and i agree attrition from a loss of a spouse or heath has taken its toll!
most of those described homes are below $200,000. or LESS!! there is a fair resale market pushing that price range!
maybe some one can chime in how many homes from $200,000 to $800,000 have sold in the last 2 years?? there are a lot of them on the market!


p.s. i made good money building homes here from 2000/2008! most my spec homes would sell the first few months under construction! i started in the $100,000 and by the second home moved to over $200,000.!



Last edited on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 04:10 am by frankie

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Not many of the original owners are here, but the homes were sometimes inherited by their heirs.........which delayed their sales into another 10 year cycle.

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frankie wrote; for approximately 4 years the market up to about $150,000. has been fair, anything on the beach selling at asking prices, and many many times over a million!


so then you have the market OVER $150,000 NOT ON THE BEACH! THAT MARKET HAS BEEN STAGNATE FOR NEARLY A DECADE! many quality beautiful homes, many in gated communities! ALL ON THE MARKET FOR YEARS!!!


also in these last 4 years the demographics has drastically changed, now the predominate buyers are Mexican citizens!



the forecast for the coming real estate  market, IMHO is bleak!!!!!
there are to many negative factors that need to be resolved before San Carlos returns to a vibrate pre 2008 market!



hook, i am standing by this previous post! 
i believe most but not all the "cycle" resales you refer to are in this fair market!
i would venture to say most of the new development housing west of the bahia are over $200,000.



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Hello Tammi, or any real estate agent. Please give us a state of the state of the real estate market in San Carlos.

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For the past couple years, MLS SFR # of sales has been about flat.


The sweet spot pricing is $200-$250k regardless of area.


The high end $400k and up is very, very slow bordering on dead.


There are far too any realtors for the # of MLS transactions.




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frankie wrote: maybe some one can chime in how many homes from $200,000 to $800,000 have sold in the last 2 years?? there are a lot of them on the market!






will, i basically asked the same question! i would really like to know what has sold over $200,000 / $800,000 NOT ON THE BEACH!!!

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StuAz wrote:
For the past couple years, MLS SFR # of sales has been about flat.


The sweet spot pricing is $200-$250k regardless of area.


The high end $400k and up is very, very slow bordering on dead.


There are far too any realtors for the # of MLS transactions.






HAH!!! thank you stu! bordering on DEAD and what i describe as STAGNATE, pretty much mean the same!
what do you have justifying the sweet spot from $200/ $250K ????? 

Last edited on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 03:05 pm by frankie

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"what do you have justifying the sweet spot from $200/ $250K ????? "


I receive a copy of the MLS sales every month.


It breaks down SFR,condo and lot sales by # sold and price.


I think most realtors would agree with our view of pricing and high end.

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Remax puts out a monthly (quarterly?) newsletter which summarizes sales. Here is a copy and paste along with a link to the actual data from their October newsletter. I am only mentioning Remax because I feel I should credit them as the source. I should also disclose that they were our rental managers and real estate agent.

Real Estate Update:

The third quarter of the year is behind us and we find that the Real Estate market in San Carlos remains similar to 2018. In this month's updated statistics we found two properties that had not been entered into the MLS in the month of closing so these have been added to the correct month and the figures adjusted.

The total number of sales year to date is precisely the same as this time last year. The dollar value of lot sales continue to drive the numbers. Click on the link to see year over year sales.

September 2019 Year to date sales in San Carlos: http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0017DudTa_a1yWQJ55k7Hd_d-P4HN7AbPfoK8hA-KA03HXdN4xeHyJvdx59wpS6kyiPoad1DJ32FV4dl3CgS4Y5KgAhRs3QXVzt77spJvfrL_1J4OCOmMCfNxSwBOaIRgb_zhC2yn_hrIljhojNj_INlKSEGRPxo1o_cHKT2zo1Ug1A_Cur0Hz7HqQp3OGRujJl4Wo_dnZzODaFI8ukUYbZGOu11fTQS1g3ti70wDbmK0B9fhx5ZK9ewEOJfaMEy33F&c=ZROqdlup8baEaFmvPfjHViYJNbr7GRJ-UImsvtjjPNtQI76o97IARQ==&ch=aVlB3KTBsgj45_8bIiTK_qSP2RMiiT8p4AsjQ0t2Dwp5H_xkwOiovA==

In addition to the closed sales there are 4 homes, 3 condos and 1 lot under contract and expected to close in the coming months. Note that we have not included the one month time share to sell at Pilar.

Last edited on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 04:29 pm by TrueBlue

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TrueBlue wrote:
The dollar value of lot sales continue to drive the numbers. Click on the link to see year over year sales.


TB, thank you! so lot sales are driving the numbers! consumers are purchasing lots to build in favor of purchasing resales!
i know for a fact that of the total real estate sales in 2018/2019, several were million dollar homes on the beach! take those high end numbers off the total and the number isn't that impressive!
which leaves us to the topic of the thread!
i just did a search on "google" "what is a stable housing appreciation rate" of course it was reporting general sales in the USA, but "ZILLOW" is reporting a 3/5% appreciation annually!
that is the problem here, we should be having an appreciation of value in our homes!
3/5% IMHO is excessive and i have conservatively posted a 1% appreciation rate! 
many homes bought and sold since the turn of the century, where purchased by acquiring 2nd or equity loans on existing their primary homes NOB!
that may be the major problem for sales between $150,000 to 800,000. usd, the easy availability of financing moneys!

Last edited on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 09:19 pm by frankie

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I have a different take on this.


Sales in all the resorts in Mexico by US buyers were up in 2000-2008 because people had money to spend. The rise in USA home prices along with low interest rates used to stimulate the economy in the Bush years allowed a lot of people to refinance their homes to get cash to buy second vacation homes.
Once that bubble burst in 2008, everyone was upside down and the foreclosure and selling spree ensued up North and down south. 
I really don't think that out of work contractors were overbidding work they were desperate to find and land with so much excess inventory around and that developers sitting on lots paying interest were not overcharging either, imo.
Since 2010, prices have recovered in the states, but I think there is still an excess on inventory here in Mexico as buyers are more gun shy and less affluent than they were 10 years ago. 

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I would say you need to be around $150k or less if you want to move small homes that are not on the beach in this market, and even less than that in Ranchitos.

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Bullshipper wrote: I have a different take on this.


bullshipper, there are now at least 3 of us beating the same drum!
the strongest description of us;
 not really "pessimists"
 not really "optimists" 
but for damn sure "realists"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Yes, but who's on first?

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WHO!!


P.S. EVERY ONE KNOWS "WHATS ON 2ND" AND "IDON'TKNOW" ON 3RD!

Last edited on Mon Nov 18th, 2019 09:40 pm by frankie

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Not sure that comparing the RE market here to the US is valid. The fact that you cannot get a mortgage for a home in SC makes a huge difference. If you could get a mortgage here you would see the prices spike imho.

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frankie wrote: NO EASY OBTAINABLE FINANCING for home investment!


OMG, now a 4th drummer?
i have made the same observation on several posts, thanks lasninas!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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This thread seems to have lost sight of reality. I live here because I came here accidentally - and liked it and built a house - in 2002. I had just sold an above avg tract home in Lag Bch for 800K appreciation. You think I built a stupid house like so many that remain unsold here. No - I retired at 53. 

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Mexican buyers can get home financing here but they pay about 12% a year if not subsidized.
And USA buyers can take seconds on their USA homes to finance homes here too.

I think the RE market is quite healthy here and there at present with record low interest rates and record stock prices. If you can't sell easily now, you are overpriced or in an area with no water.

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Only 49 SFR houses have sold YTD thru Sept.


That means it is not all about pricing.


It is about demand for housing in the market.


49 includes  MLS listings in SC and Guaymas.

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I believe the stats I posted apply only to San Carlos and do not include Guaymas.

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The local MLS includes Guaymas as to listings and sales.


The bulk of listings and sales are SC but not all.


I would add that many who want to sell have quit trying or know the market is so weak for their type property than listing it makes no sense.


I would rather post + info as to the market conditions however that isnt the way it is




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frankie wrote: frankie wrote; for approximately 4 years the market up to about $150,000. has been fair, anything on the beach selling at asking prices, and many many times over a million!


so then you have the market OVER $150,000 NOT ON THE BEACH! THAT MARKET HAS BEEN STAGNATE FOR NEARLY A DECADE! many quality beautiful homes, many in gated communities! ALL ON THE MARKET FOR YEARS!!!


also in these last 4 years the demographics has drastically changed, now the predominate buyers are Mexican citizens!



the forecast for the coming real estate  market, IMHO is bleak!!!!!
there are to many negative factors that need to be resolved before San Carlos returns to a vibrate pre 2008 market!



hook, i am standing by this previous post! 
i believe most but not all the "cycle" resales you refer to are in this fair market!
i would venture to say most of the new development housing west of the bahia are over $200,000.





Yeah, well, the new developments west of the Bahia may be ASKING more than 200K, but I doubt they are getting it.


Seriously, what new developments west of the Bahia are you talking about? The lots inland from the old Paradiso? The development east of the seminary?

Last edited on Tue Nov 19th, 2019 03:46 am by Hook

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Hook wrote;

Seriously, what new developments west of the Bahia are you talking about? The lots inland from the old Paradiso? The development east of the seminary?


i agree the 2 developments you described, appear to be idle, and from the start controversial!

in case you haven't noticed, ALL the properties around the "LOOK OUT" are under heavy development! whole mountain sides have been leveled! from my experience, mega bucks are being spent on this endeavor, just to level and place infrastructure!! also there are over a dozen homes under construction, in and from Vista Marina, to the "look out"! all from an experienced and seasoned developer!
these are the desirable ocean side and view lots, that are in demand!!
location, location, location. the real estate MANTRA of success!
do yourself a favor, take a drive to the "look out" and see for yourself! 
SERIOUSLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last edited on Tue Nov 19th, 2019 04:21 am by frankie

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That extension of Vista Marina will have spectacular views even if not waterfront. Those homes will not be cheap. The Ranchitos is a different kind of market. I lived there. More for the person who wants a bigger lot at a low price for storage of toys and maybe a workshop. Sales statistics can be misleading when you are looking at averages as one million dollar home can make the average meaningless. Will be interesting to see how the season goes.

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The properties that Frankie describes are high end stuff. I have seen no prices and the website of the developer is of no help

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the topic and question was selling a house in ranchitos.
it has evolved into the entire real estate market. 
many great comments and observations have been made!
i believe the question, along with other questions has been met!
my over view is the market under $150K fair
market over $150K not on the beach, bordering on dead.
sea side new builds up and where the over all market strength is!

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Here’s a video tour of Lydia’s house on the Caracol Peninsula that went on the market a few months ago at $2.3 million USD.


https://youtu.be/atiPy3OBC6s


Also, an aerial photo of the house and pool on the south end of the CP...

Attached Image (viewed 120 times):

D80793C8-13E6-4DD9-A818-1FDDDB4DD24F.jpeg

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Has it sold?



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