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Possible storm on the horizon  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Mon Sep 17th, 2018 09:37 pm
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RichD
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It has been very quiet in San Carlos since Hurricane Bud.  Season is not over yet though.  There is an area of disturbance that might turn into something.  Too many variables at this time but it is forecast to move North where previous storms have gone West.  Just a heads up to be watching your favorite weather site this week.  



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 Posted: Mon Sep 17th, 2018 10:07 pm
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MARIGOT
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Thanks, Rich.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 17th, 2018 10:19 pm
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RichD
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It is hard to imagine that the track will take it East of Cabo.  However the waters West of Cabo are still warm enough to support a hurricane.  Generally sea surface temp below 27C will weaken a storm.  There might be some chance of the storm crossing the baja just North of the cape.  If that happens it could be trouble.  All of this is too early to predict.  Might have a better picture by Wed or Thur.  





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 Posted: Tue Sep 18th, 2018 06:12 pm
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RichD
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It looks like this system will not get organized into a tropical storm.  So wind might not be an issue but it will certainly bring a lot of rain to the Baja and very likely some rain to San Carlos.  



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 Posted: Wed Sep 19th, 2018 07:43 pm
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TrueBlue
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FYI...


Might drop up to 15 inches of rain.



This is going to be directly over San Carlos at 6pm Wednesday.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/191455.shtml?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/refresh/EP192018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145644_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Last edited on Wed Sep 19th, 2018 07:47 pm by TrueBlue

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 Posted: Wed Sep 19th, 2018 08:08 pm
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Bullshipper
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TrueBlue wrote: FYI...


Might drop up to 15 inches of rain.



This is going to be directly over San Carlos at 6pm Wednesday.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/191455.shtml?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/refresh/EP192018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145644_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png




15 " is about what we get in two years. Sounds a little high to me.

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 Posted: Wed Sep 19th, 2018 08:43 pm
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TrueBlue
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That's what people said about Jimena when we had 3 feet of mud in our house.


Be careful.  Just be aware of the possibility.  Not trying to raise unnecessary worry.

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 Posted: Wed Sep 19th, 2018 10:17 pm
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RichD
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Always good to prepare for the worst but I would think something like 2 to 4 inches total out of this system. It has slowed down but still moving at 9mph. Should be well inland by tomorrow at dawn. Just in case it exceeds that it might be a good idea to avoid travel this evening.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 01:19 pm
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ballenamar
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Today, Thursday 20 September, school classes have been suspended in Guaymas due to a hurricane alert.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 02:14 pm
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IronMan
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:? 

Gee, seems unlikely?


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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 03:06 pm
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RichD
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I think they were a little premature. Summer showers hanging around but the remnants of the tropical depression are already well inland.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 03:58 pm
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ballenamar
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The civil authorities are more concerned about rain and flooding in the downtown Guaymas area. We have those low mountains to the easy which direct any rainwater to the main streets causing serious flooding. Ergo, no way to get to school or work. We teachers still work (planning, etc), but no students. My weather predictor on my computer predicts a 30% possibility of rain today.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 04:11 pm
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Jimmy
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I have been down town Guaymas during flooding....2' to 3' of water going down Serdan..If you notice the high curbs, thats why. Rain water rushes off the Guaymas mountains and down toward the bay. Its a sight to behold...I have seen cars floating/bobbing down Serdan with the driver inside trying to steer the car....jajajajaja  For waders use 2 trash bags, pull one of them up over each leg and roll the top and hold onto them as you cross the street..

Last edited on Thu Sep 20th, 2018 04:14 pm by Jimmy

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 08:23 pm
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long time resident
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Is it raining now? How much rain did you get?

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 08:59 pm
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MARIGOT
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Less than half inch at my house on the Caracol.
My gardener said not much at his house in San Carlos either.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 20th, 2018 09:41 pm
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will rogers
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Wednesday, 2.4 inches of rain at my Tucson house. However, there is now a high pressure to the West that is pushing the moisture to the East. If it stays there for the next few days I think it will also influence far enough to the South to push moisture away from San Carlos.

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