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Hurricane Bud  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Wed Jun 13th, 2018 01:31 am
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frankie
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Mana: 
hook, very true! i would rather be safe than sorry! 
my vehicle fuel tanks are always full, for the bug out if needed!

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 Posted: Wed Jun 13th, 2018 03:49 am
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RichD
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9pm update shows that Bud is following previous forecasts.  The closer it comes to Cabo the uncertainty of path is less.  Looks like it should go West of Cabo and cross the Baja coming out about La Paz.  It is losing strength quickly but still has winds of 90mph.  It is moving very slowly but is expected to pick up speed on Thursday.  Might see some outer band showers by mid day Friday.  Luckily the waters in the gulf are not that warm yet so it is doubtful it will gain strength before coming ashore.  


Will just have to see how much rain will be dumped.  4 inches would be great, 8 inches is enough to cause flooding.  The moisture plume will spread into Arizona/new Mexico by Saturday.  


At this point it does not look like there will be much wind. 

Attachment: Capture.JPG (Downloaded 341 times)

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 Posted: Wed Jun 13th, 2018 01:42 pm
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RichD
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Good news.  Bud has slowed to a crawl and is losing strength over cool water.  It is still forecast to pick up speed when it crosses the gulf.  That is a key consideration.  The faster it passes over us the less rain it will dump.  The current forecast has it shifting more to the North which might mean less rain for Arizona.  Because the storm center will pass to the East of SC, the counter clockwise flow will mean winds coming off the land instead of onshore.  Might have dodged another bullet.  The slow speed means the rain might not show up until Friday night.  

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 Posted: Wed Jun 13th, 2018 03:30 pm
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RichD
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A quick note:  If Bud moves as fast as the prediction says, it will pass over San Carlos very quickly.  Worst part of the rain might be in the middle of the night, in other words 11pm Fri to 4am Sat.  Predictions are just that...  educated guesses.  All looks good for a minor impact at this point.  Party on. 

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 Posted: Wed Jun 13th, 2018 03:53 pm
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maryt
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Thanks Rich. I always appreciate your calm and objective analysis.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 02:16 pm
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RichD
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Nothing new on Bud. He continues to weaken. May dump the bulk of rain on Cabo as it unwinds. Now it is a matter of waiting to see what happens when it clears the Baja. Could be a dud. Good news for San Carlos. I am in Show Low and we could sure use the rain but it might not come.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 03:08 pm
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MARIGOT
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Thanks for the update, Rich.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 04:58 pm
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Caroline
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Every bit of info on this site from locals is much more valuable to us in SC than the NHC/Noah site which doesn't get into details about our area.


Thanks to all of you who know how to "read" this stuff,  a great help and comforting to
know others are watching out for how this might affect our town.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 04:58 pm
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RichD
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Winds are down to 45mph.  Approaching Cabo now.  Rain there with winds in the high 20s.  Should start seeing some breeze from the East or Northeast tomorrow afternoon switching to North wind as Bud passes to the East of San Carlos.  I am not sure how much rain will fall but I don't think it will be enough for heavy flooding.  Should be all over by Saturday noon.  

Attachment: Capture.JPG (Downloaded 219 times)

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 05:03 pm
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JCB
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 The Weather Channel is predicting 1" - 2" with 20mph wind on Friday so it probably won't amount to much of anything.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 05:29 pm
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RichD
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That would seem reasonable. Might see some gusts up to 35. I hope there is more rain than that out North of San Jose to help recharge the aquifer where the wells that service San Carlos are. It is what it is. I don't see this as a storm that causes a lot of damage. Way too early to say anything about the other area of disturbance down South.

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 Posted: Thu Jun 14th, 2018 10:49 pm
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RichD
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What the NHC says and what the imagery shows are kind of different. The NHC says little or no change as Bud approaches Cabo. The imagery below makes it look like it is breaking up and the moisture plume already spreading up to Arizona. This might just be the additional moisture enhancing the normal monsoon flow, not sure. Anyway, Bud might spark off a little rain early but will not be the main factor of SC weather until tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-animated.gif

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 02:51 am
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Caroline
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The water level in the Bahia is much higher than usual. I'm guessing the Sea of Cortez is churning thus our much higher tide the last two days.

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 10:48 am
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frankie
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friday, it started raining at about 1:50 am eebmike shows the storm pretty well broken up and the eye tracking south of us!
i am waiting to read rich's opinion, it looks to me these early am rains may be all we get!

Last edited on Fri Jun 15th, 2018 10:55 am by frankie

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 01:24 pm
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RichD
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Yes, the imagery shows that moisture is way ahead of the actual cyclone.  The track is to the Northeast which would bring Bud in way South of San Carlos.  NHC says the wind is still 40 mph in an elongated shape.  


Certainly not a wind event in SC.  
Seems possible that there might be more rain later.  
Possible heavy rain inland from Northern Sonora into the US.
Dense cloud cover in Show Low right now, hope we get rain up here.   


Bottom line, you should be able to bring the patio furniture back out by noon. 



Interesting comments from NHC.... [size=while low cloud]motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level center has been left behind over or near Baja. The low-level circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of California and northwestern Mexico.

That is a new one. The moisture 'leaving behind' the cyclonic wind.
Always something new to learn about tropical weather.

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 03:41 pm
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frankie
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rich, i love your 3rd paragraph, i didn't expect rain till this afternoon, so i didn't bring the cushion in and they are currently drying! 

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 06:45 pm
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RichD
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That was a joke. There might be more rain today but not in huge amounts.

By the way... Carlotta is the new storm. It won't come anywhere near San Carlos.

There is a steady stream of tropical waves in transit from Africa as is usual this time of year. These are the seeds of tropical cyclones. Bud was an usual storm so early in the season. Hopefully we are back to normal and will not need to worry about tropical weather for at least a month. That should free up time to worry about bugs.

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 07:24 pm
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frankie
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here at PDS we had a good rain in the early AM it has been a steady and welcome drizzle since!
rich, i always look forward and appreciate your reports!

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 10:44 pm
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odwyerpw
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We have been getting incredible rain here in Alamos since last night. The truth is we had a good hour long gully washer Wednesday night as well. Literally our 5th rain event... all before the normal monsoon season even begins! This is AWESOME! Though we are at the point where I will be shoveling mud out of the street and doing a massive cleanup of my property by Sunday. Definitely can't use any of the Vados throughout town now... the arroyos are all running too deep.


I imagine you guys are getting quite a bit of rain by now...

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 Posted: Fri Jun 15th, 2018 11:12 pm
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frankie
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steady drizzle all day long!

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