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 Posted: Tue Aug 4th, 2020 09:50 pm
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frankiej
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Mana: 
hey buddy i agree with you!!!!!!!!!!!!!! there are just way to many who don't want to adhere!

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 Posted: Sat Aug 8th, 2020 03:00 am
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Bullshipper
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Guaymas was been coded red this afternoon, so I wonder if there will be a push to close the beaches and marina again. No checkpoint on Beltrones, and the tourists are arriving in mass. Lots of people and traffic in town

Last edited on Sat Aug 8th, 2020 03:01 am by Bullshipper

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 Posted: Sat Aug 8th, 2020 09:38 pm
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DocD
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Puerto Peñasco beaches reopen with restrictions

https://www.azcentral.com/picture-gallery/news/local/arizona/2020/08/08/puerto-penasco-beaches-reopen-restrictions/3325588001/

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 Posted: Sat Aug 8th, 2020 11:00 pm
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frankiej
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DocD, thank you for the great article.


reading and seeing everything going on in Puerto Penasco, testing, active police patrol. it appears they are in the modern advances of the 21st century, while we here in San Carlos / Guaymas appear to be in some sort of time warp. that can also be said about all the daily reports i read and see about lack of testing and the time it takes to get the results, in the USA.


* in your opinion how accurate are the tests being used?
something doesn't seem right? it leaves me skeptical and baffled as to why the USA and for that matter the whole world are not doing the same thing??


i assume probably every business owner and a large percentage of the residents here would kick in on a project similar to "Rocky Points", just so we could have some semblance to normality! 

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 01:16 am
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DocD
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If we had here even half of what they're doing in Puerto Penasco it would be great.


As far as testing there's a severe shortage still. But I suppose if they can't make them so they're faster and  much more accurate having more ( of  mediocre  tests) doesn't really matter.
Some ( the PCR test , with the nasal swab, has to go to a lab) These tests are taking up to 2 weeks to get results which do no good. These are the accurate tests .
  
The fast test ( an antigen test) is much less reliable. These are used at White house and Capitol Hill buildings etc.

For a test to be effective you need the results in 24 - 48 hours and of course they need to be accurate..DUH.....

From Ohio
....."Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio was surprised to receive a positive test result during a screening by the White House on Thursday. He later tested negative."Credit...Andrew Welsh Huggins/Associated Press


And from Pennsylvania......
    ""Pennsylvania is expanding its number of testing locations, yet some of those locations are taking up to two weeks to deliver results, state officials acknowledged Thursday.
“Two weeks, that’s almost useless,” Gov. Tom Wolf said during a briefing on the subject.""


In an advanced country like the United States this is just unacceptable.
What a massive failure and it didn't and doesn't have to be this way.

My disgust is probably evident....LOL

Last edited on Sun Aug 9th, 2020 01:19 am by DocD

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 01:49 am
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frankiej
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thanks Doc you verified what i suspected. just more "smoke and mirrors".


it is amazing to me, that we can watch movies with traveling salesmen selling snake oil, or rainmakers who will bring rain to drought ridden areas. we sit back and say how could be people have been so gullible to have bought into such obvious deceptions, and he we are in the 21st century lining up to the many carnival barkers!


There's a sucker born every minute - Wikipedia

Last edited on Sun Aug 9th, 2020 02:39 am by frankiej

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 02:46 am
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Bullshipper
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I dunno. Rocky Point gets an article printed to try and attract american tourists, and from what I see, SC is taking the same steps with check points, marina closures, no drinking on limited access to the beach.

RP gets mostly college kids that want to drink and generally misbehave. SC gets Mexican tourists with their families. So I really don't think that in real life they are any safer than we are.

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 03:07 am
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nice guy
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Is there some place close to SC (in Mexico - in Gym or Hmo) - where I can go and pay cash for a Covid antibody test - cost and accuracy?

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 03:15 am
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frankiej
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i think nice guy has a valid question.


here is my question is there a consumer report on the different tests and manufacturers, origin of manufacture.
how they rate, the quality of the testing, the type of testing.
 there is on almost everything  from cars and trucks to kitchen appliances.

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 04:00 am
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zancudo
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/02/health/gupta-coronavirus-t-cell-cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html


”"For herd immunity, if indeed we have a very large proportion of the population already being immune in one way or another, through these cellular responses, they can count towards the pool that you need to establish herd immunity. If you have 50% already in a way immune, because of these existing immune responses, then you don't need 60 to 80%, you need 10 to 30% -- you have covered the 50% already. The implications of having some pre-existing immunity suggests that maybe you need a small proportion of the population to be impacted before the epidemic wave dies out," said Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology and population health at Stanford University.“






It seems to me like the virus has tapered off somewhat in the hard hit areas. This study may explain why. As has been the case who know? Maybe reason for optimism though. 


Deaths in Sweden have plummeted. No doubt they paid a price but I think they were unfairly ridiculed for their approach.



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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 12:04 pm
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frankiej
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zancudo wrote:It seems to me like the virus has tapered off somewhat in the hard hit areas. This study may explain why. As has been the case who know? Maybe reason for optimism though. 

if you are climbing a mountain, reached the summit and you are on your way down. you stop to rest and get your bearings, until you are strong enough and have realized your way down. there are many still climbing to reach the summit and many stopping with you resting and getting their bearings, that is the "plateau" , it is not the desired base or bottom all started at, or what you need to reach to be at where all started.
 it is the "plateau" not the base or the bottom.


the last paragraph in the article sums up popular conception; 


The biggest problem is that everybody wants a simple answer," said Johns Hopkins' Casadevall. "What nobody wants to hear is that it's unpredictable, because many variables play together in ways that you can't put together: your history, your nutrition, how you got infected, how much [virus] you got -- even tot infected. And all The biggest problem is that everybody wants a simple answer," said Johns Hopkins' Casadevall. "What nobody wants to hear is that it's unpredictable, because  play together in ways that you can't put together: your history, your nutrition, how you got infected, how much time of the day you got infected, how much [virus] you got -- even the time of the day you got infected. And all these variables combine in ways that are unpredictable.

Last edited on Sun Aug 9th, 2020 12:51 pm by frankiej

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 07:00 pm
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DocD
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I know Dr Mike Laux here in town does it with a blood draw. He told me it is very accurate.  I didn't ask him the cost.
622 226 2060

Last edited on Sun Aug 9th, 2020 08:33 pm by DocD

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 08:00 pm
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nice guy
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I guess my wording was a little too subtle - maybe should have more direct and said NOT in SC - instead of "close to SC (in Mexico - in Gym or Hmo)".

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 08:22 pm
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Bullshipper
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Studies are showing the the antibodies in folks that have had it start petering out after a month, so I am not sure how that has effect the equation on herd immunity with this virus that also seems to altering itself pretty quickly.

Gates is saying that even with the vaccine and better treatments we are gonna be fighting this through the end of 2021 and I would guess his estimate takes herd immunity into account. 

Gate's is info is as reliable as anyone and he doesn't seem to want to mislead anyone.

Last edited on Sun Aug 9th, 2020 08:25 pm by Bullshipper

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 08:34 pm
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390pony
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I wouldn't believe a word Gates every says.

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 09:34 pm
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DocD
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Frank you're right. All smoke and mirrors.

 Bullshipper. . I  agree. The cynical part of me says that that was just a great photo op and story to assure the people of Arizona. 
COME ON DOWN!
We will find out how long they do it if they do it all. Those of us here have great experience with that.

Regarding herd immunity. .you're right about there being no assurance antibodies will remain.  No one knows yet.

The best way to achieve herd immunity is through a vaccine. But you would need an efficacy rate of close to 90%.( like the measles vaccine)
Most experts( including Fauci) are afraid that a Covid 19 vaccine will only have an efficacy rate of around 50 %. They are not really confident.  Therefore they also think we may have to get a series of booster shots after the initial dose because of disappearing antibodies and the low efficacy.

On top of that. There was just a recent poll in the US asking if you would get the vaccine once it's developed and 30%  said they would not get a vaccine!
It's not looking good.

Here is a great article on chaos theory and herd immunity.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/


Regarding Sweden. ...
The politicians in Sweden think they had great success. The health experts... not so much. Sound familiar?

  Their economy fared slightly better than their neighbors that were on lockdown. But they had 11 times the deaths of neighbor Norway.  And they suffered 543 deaths per million of its population, compared to just 105 in neighboring Denmark.
ALSO......""With a COVID-19 death toll of 5,700, Sweden’s mortality rate from the disease is now around a quarter higher than that of the United States, when adjusted for population size".

Here is the article. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-not-mean-lockdown-plan-worked-2020-7 

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 Posted: Sun Aug 9th, 2020 09:49 pm
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Bullshipper
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20 cars have been stopped for achohol so far today in SC according to social media.

That source says that Kino Bay only let 1000 cars into their town this weekend.

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 Posted: Mon Aug 10th, 2020 12:00 am
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Angel
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Laboratorio Ramos across from Ley in Guaymas, need to make appointment. 1800 pesos blood test for antibodies, 3500 pesos for nose and throat swab test. I believe this is where Dr Laux sends the samples he takes. Results for blood tests take about two days, the swab test about four days.

Last edited on Mon Aug 10th, 2020 12:02 am by Angel

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 Posted: Mon Aug 10th, 2020 12:38 am
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MARIGOT
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I think Angel is right about Laboratorio Ramos being the lab Dr Mike sends his samples.
One of my lab results for a blood draw last year at Dr Mike’s office is signed by Alfonso Ramos Salazar.

Last edited on Mon Aug 10th, 2020 12:38 am by MARIGOT

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 Posted: Mon Aug 10th, 2020 04:25 am
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Bullshipper
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We discussed an article were Ramos said they were stopping all testing.
The Lab is across the street from the main Ley shopping center at the traffic light, and if they are testing you can have the sample taken there at no extra charge.

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