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 Moderated by: bartmanaz Page:    1  2  3  Next Page Last Page  
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New storm developing  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 05:25 pm
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RichD
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Mana: 
Not yet a named storm.  Will not say anything about it except be aware that it is out there and follow it on your favorite weather site or front porch.  Projected to be a similar path as Lorena to begin with.  

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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 05:51 pm
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odwyerpw
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Mana: 
We are going to get some rain. I shut off my A/C and drip irrigation about a week ago. Love this time of year, but of course I live inland. Hopefully it's a mild event for you folks there.

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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 06:32 pm
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TrueBlue
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Mana: 
Yikes! Two in a row to thread the needle? This far out forecasts and tracks are notoriously inaccurate. I'd put money down that it will not thread the needle. Wise to keep watch the next few days.

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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 06:33 pm
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MARIGOT
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Mana: 
Thank you for the heads up, Rich. I had just looked at this one before you posted, but missed the tracking picture you posted.


Most of my storm preparations from Lorena are still in place, with the exception of a few patio chairs.
I’ll start eating the ice cream now so I don’t lose it if the power goes out for this new one! 👍


I sure hope PTC 16E turns west soon and stays away from land masses.  We have 2 more months of this?  Storm season ends Nov 30?

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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 06:44 pm
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Hook
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Mana: 
Windy.com has it crashing into Cabo Corrientes, then into the Mazatlan area and then threading the needle and crashing into Baja around Mulege. So, mostly in agreement with the above forecast from the NHC.

I think the thought that "summer is over" down there, based on a couple cool mornings, is premature. Even before this low formed, and the cool mornings occurred, rain from the south was predicted for Mon night thru Wed AM. Humidity levels during the day are still at 50% or above. Monday might be a little respite in humidity before the southern rains come back. Most models are in agreement about the next 5 days.

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 Posted: Sat Sep 28th, 2019 07:34 pm
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Benito_Villa
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Mana: 
Thanks Rich D. Always feel better knowing there are a few of you out there on top of everything concerning the weather in San Carlos.

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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 02:55 am
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suzmax
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Rich, I hope you continue to give us your insight. I know there are many of us who appreciate the time and effort you put into your posts. So please post away! Don't let one keyboard warrior dissuade you from all the good you do. If they don't like it, offer them a full refund for their purchase price. Oh right, it was free. Maybe they can just scroll past your posts in the future. 

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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 03:15 am
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MARIGOT
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Mana: 
The track picture has changed a little, showing landfall a little south of San Carlos.



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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 03:21 am
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RichD
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Mana: 
There will be changes on this one I think. The big question is how much it will interact with land as it brushes the mainland coast. Just be aware that it is out there and follow it until it is gone. Should know by Monday how much is left as it moves into open sea... if it does.

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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 04:57 pm
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Hook
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Mana: 
Now a named storm, Tropical Storm Narda.

Still pretty much the same course; maybe with a little more easterly path that might put it over mainland Mexico, well south of San Carlos. But even so, the expectation is CURRENTLY for it to strengthen and reform in the waters immediately south of the entrance to the Sea of Cortez, after clearing land. Forecasters say that very light shear conditions will exist when it clears the Cabo Corrientes area. But predicting its intensity, at that point, is difficult.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME, the expected path does take it right over San Carlos around 7am on Wednesday. The best guess is that it would still be a tropical storm.

I am still amazed at how little rain fell from Lorena; given its proximity to San Carlos. But it was a very small (in area) storm. 

Last edited on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 05:00 pm by Hook

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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 05:21 pm
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RichD
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Mana: 
Lorena was humbling from a forecasting perspective. Narda is the same. I don't think you will know how bad it will be for San Carlos until Monday and in the worst case scenario it will be a tropical storm very close to San Carlos on Wednesday. So not much time to prepare. As usual, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I would not recommend going out to sea and using your eyes. Have respect for your equipment and the people that might have to come out and rescue you. Could get very sloppy out there by Tuesday.


The most likely scenario is that it stays over land today and breaks up, leaving nothing more than a tropical depression.  If it breaks up that far South, the moisture will blow off to the Northeast and you might have zero impact to SC.

Last edited on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 06:52 pm by RichD

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 Posted: Sun Sep 29th, 2019 08:05 pm
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Bullshipper
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Mana: 
There is a major cold front moving south at the same time this warm air front moves north. I would think that this would make an accurate prediction even harder.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 04:56 am
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RichD
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The center of Narda is not very well defined but it should start moving away from land in a few hours.  Still has winds near tropical storm status.  Most models agree on it coming up the SOC but the strength is a big question.  It is moving pretty fast so tomorrow morning should give a better idea of how much power this is going to have.  Most likely it will hug the coast and cause a lot of flooding and misery on it's way. Since almost half of the system will be over land, it might not get too organized.  There is an area of high pressure to the East of it that will probably keep it off shore for a while. 

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 05:26 am
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Bullshipper
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Mana: 
Any prediction on the amount of rain in SC yet? Is that easier to predict than wind?

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 05:43 am
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Hook
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Mana: 
See, this is what makes predictions so confounding.

High pressure to the NE, wanting to deflect it to the west, low pressure approaching from the NW, wanting to draw it to the east.

Ah, but there are other pressure zones surrounding these highs and lows, than move them around. Will they shift, and create an unimpeded path?

The pressure zones strengthen. They weaken. The jet stream exerts ITS influence. The jet stream bends and curves BECAUSE of these pressure zone influences.

The cyclone has its own inertia. Landmasses exert their own influences.

The sun heats areas, causing surface lows that exert influences. (Will clouds prevent this heating? Will the sun prevail and burn off cloud cover?)

It's a veritable Greek tragedy going on in the atmosphere.....and some of us are the chorus.

The lifespan of a cyclone that meets land is very Freytagian.....if that is even a word.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 06:14 am
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Hook
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The network of PWS on Weather Underground can be viewed as a layer on their Wundermap. Wundermap is often temperamental, but I believe that WU still has the largest grouping of PWS on the internet, except possibly some US govt display. When you see the optional layers along the upper right side of the Wundermap, be sure that "Weather Stations" is checked.

If you see NO options for layers, look for a down carat, indicating a menu to be revealed.

One caution; if you are displaying "weather stations" and viewing a large area with lots of PWS (like in the US), Wundermap can really bog down as you try to move around, geographically. Best to deselect "weather stations", move to your desired area, and re-select. As you zoom in, more PWS will be revealed.

Anyway, as I write this, there are three PWS in the Puerto Vallarta area. Two basically in town and one out by Punta de Mita. None of them are showing anything exceptional, with respect to wind speed or rainfall; yet the sat/radar overlay of Wundermap shows the center of Narda (such as it is) fairly close to these stations.

I have to assume that the circulation around the cyclone is not pushing the rain clouds up against the hills surrounding PV, at this time. The circulation is bringing winds in from the east and over the mountains towards the center of the cyclone. Orographics are not happening RIGHT NOW.

Or is this just another relatively "dry" hurricane like Lorena?

Let's see what happens.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 06:24 am
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Hook
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The 10pm CDT synopsis has Narda downgraded to a tropical depression, but it is expected to regain strength over open waters, Monday.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 02:40 pm
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RichD
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I think Hook has a good list of things that make the dreaded cone of uncertainty so uncertain. The projected path has it coming right over San Carlos but from where it is to here, just a few degrees of shift could have it in Mulege. It is not a powerful storm but has widespread cold cloud tops which could produce lots of rain but mostly over water. You might look at the amount of rain in Mazatlan later today for a clue. Not much organization yet this morning.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 02:49 pm
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Bullshipper
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Mana: 
The prediction said it will go from Mazatlan past Sc in a day if I understand this. So the rain period does not look like it will last that long to cause severe damage.

You guys are way over my head, but the Accuweather storm rating seems more pertinent to me than a simple wind category assessment, as speed and rain are 2 of the other other 5 factors predicting overall impact.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 30th, 2019 02:51 pm
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Bullshipper
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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-new-realimpact-scale-for-hurricanes-will-revolutionize-damage-predictions-for-greater-public-safety/70007111

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