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 Moderated by: bartmanaz Page:    1  2  3  4  Next Page Last Page  
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Sergio  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Sun Sep 30th, 2018 03:38 am
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RichD
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Sergio is going to be a hurricane but should stand well off shore.  Should pose no threat to land but may spin off some rain in 8 to 10 days from now.  Something on the back burner while we wait for Rosa to wind down.  





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 Posted: Fri Oct 5th, 2018 02:35 pm
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RichD
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Unclear if Sergio will come near SC.  Forecast calls for a hard right turn on Monday.  This is such a radical shift that I would expect the track to change but it looks like it will head back toward the Baja.  Lots of variables but don't ignore it.  Rosa did not impact SC much but it sure caused a lot of grief in other areas.  Should know more next week. 



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 Posted: Fri Oct 5th, 2018 04:18 pm
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Hook
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Darn. Not the Sergio that used to sell all that great stuff near the Thrifty ice cream. I miss that guy. Always great stuff from down south.

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 Posted: Fri Oct 5th, 2018 10:38 pm
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happy camper
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I just got this from a friend of mine..
Check out this link : https://www.windy.com/?27.294,-102.788,5



Go to the bottom of the page and move the date ( click on days going forward ) to about next Wednesday or Thursday- - -to see the projected path of this storm.

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 Posted: Sat Oct 6th, 2018 01:51 am
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bombero
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looks like we might get a little/a lot of moisture here in SC. Looks like it is long gone by Friday.

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 Posted: Sat Oct 6th, 2018 01:52 am
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IronMan
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Thanks for that link - amazing site!

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 Posted: Sat Oct 6th, 2018 12:52 pm
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RichD
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I have never seen this before.  The forecast track calls for a 180 degree shift.  Basically predicting Sergio will turn right around and head back towards Baja.  Will have to see how this develops.  It will spend a lot of time over cool water so let's hope it loses steam before it gets near us.



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 Posted: Tue Oct 9th, 2018 05:30 pm
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Hook
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Latest estimates has TS Sergio (still currently a hurricane) arriving a bit later to San Carlos than earlier predicted. It now looks like arrival may be in the afternoon on Friday. Currently, Sergio is only traveling at 6 kts/hr. But it is expected to increase it's speed Wed night/Thur AM. Analysis had indicted that Sergio IS slowly weakening, and will be a TS by Wednesday afternoon. The expected NE direction shift has begun.

So much will depend on the track it takes. The models are in very close agreement that it will encounter the cool water left by Hurricane Rosa, as well as the usual upwelling off of central Baja. But if it takes a more southerly track, it actually would pass over much warmer water and could strengthen. That is not what the current consensus of the models is indicating, though.

Last edited on Tue Oct 9th, 2018 05:32 pm by Hook

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 Posted: Tue Oct 9th, 2018 05:48 pm
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RichD
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There is a very good chance that Sergio will go right over SC.  The question will be how much strength it has left.  I think it would be wise to make preparations just in case.   As Hook indicated, Friday should be the day.  It did make the turn as predicted and is headed NE.  Watch it closely.  





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 Posted: Tue Oct 9th, 2018 10:53 pm
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RichD
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No change in track but wind speed is down. Tropical storm status now. Although the point of landfall is close to Jimena, it is nothing like it. Jimena was a cat 4 hurricane as it approached the Baja. This will likely be a low level tropical storm and not have the strength to reorganize after it crosses the Baja. Rain is very likely though but let's hope not too much.

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 Posted: Wed Oct 10th, 2018 04:33 pm
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RichD
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Looking more like a direct hit. Hopefully it will travel fast over San Carlos but be prepared for high wind. Please take this seriously.

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 Posted: Wed Oct 10th, 2018 08:41 pm
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frankie
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for those of you, that this might be your first tropical storm, sometimes it's a lot of blah, blah blah, and sometimes it's as serious as a heart attach! 


this one looks like it will hit us straight on! BE PREPARED!!



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 Posted: Wed Oct 10th, 2018 10:08 pm
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390pony
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I wish I could be, my husband always protected my house. I don't have that security any more. :(

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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 03:20 am
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Hook
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Latest projections has Sergio tracking more north of San Carlos. But not by much.



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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 02:19 pm
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RichD
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One more day to make preparations. It is possible that Sergio will still have 50mph winds when it reaches the mainland. I personally don't think it will be that strong but even 40mph sustained winds with stronger gusts can do a lot of damage. Bring the patio furniture in and check your dock lines. Hope that it continues to move fast.

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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 05:05 pm
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frankie
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thursday 9:00 am it's sprinkling here at puesta!

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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 06:53 pm
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Hook
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Wy Not, have you lost power at your house? A friend in the Country Club says they lost power for about an hour or so.

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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 08:26 pm
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Hook
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UKMET and NAM models still have Sergio going directly over San Carlos.

But the official NHC prediction is still for it to come ashore in Sonora around Ensenada Grande or maybe a little farther north. Still not far enough away to make much difference.

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 Posted: Thu Oct 11th, 2018 08:41 pm
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RichD
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Looks like very strong winds from the South or Southwest on Friday from mid morning into the afternoon. If you are lucky enough to have beach front property, try and prepare for that. Wind driven waves from the South will be huge.

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 Posted: Fri Oct 12th, 2018 02:51 am
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RichD
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Sergio is still moving very fast.  Might be close to SC in the early hours tomorrow.  Maybe clear of SC by late morning. 

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