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 Moderated by: bartmanaz Page:    1  2  Next Page Last Page  
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Rosa  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Tue Sep 25th, 2018 05:14 pm
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RichD
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Rosa will become a hurricane but will stay well off shore.   Could be a rain maker for SC when it breaks up.  



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 Posted: Tue Sep 25th, 2018 06:57 pm
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MARIGOT
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Thanks, Rich

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 Posted: Wed Sep 26th, 2018 03:27 am
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repsilon
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Windy.com has an ominous prediction for the one behind it, but it is highly speculative. 

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 Posted: Wed Sep 26th, 2018 04:18 am
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RichD
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Great graphics on that site. I have no idea how they forecast. Computer models I would guess. Will just have to see.

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 Posted: Wed Sep 26th, 2018 05:26 am
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Bullshipper
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Mexican radio stations are forecasting big weather events

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 Posted: Wed Sep 26th, 2018 03:34 pm
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RichD
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For now, I would advise keeping an eye on Rosa until she is gone. Forecast to still by a hurricane on Monday. Some models have it turning back East and heading towards the Baja. That would be at least 6 days from now and there are too many variables to say for sure. Just be watchful and prepare for rain at the very least. The storm on the horizon should spin up by Monday or Tuesday. Hurricane season is not over. Follow your favorite weather sites.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 12:20 am
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RichD
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Latest advisory shows a strong turn to the Northeast.  It should be well North of SC by then but this storm bears watching.  It should be very weak by the time it approaches Baja due to cooler waters that far North in the Pacific.  I would not think this will be a wind event for SC and the rain might miss us too.  Predicting how much rain we will get based on the outer bands throwing off moisture is way too hard for me.  Baja will get soaked for sure.   Watch this storm carefully. 

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 12:44 pm
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repsilon
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Very interesting to watch the weather dynamics on windy.com with the play function. It seems that there is a pattern between morning and evening forecasts, with an accelerated pm forecast as usually activity heats up during the day. If you read eebmike's storm details of all the storm factors you would think there is no way that windy could have inputtd all those factors. Now, both are still hypothetical at best. Pretty accurate in the winter, but not so with hurricanes. Maybe more-so for the Pacific? We were in N.C. last year with a direct hit projected, and it went to Florida. (I am here again, so I am not writing this at 4:30!). Last night showed a direct hit on San Carlos for next weekend (and bigger than Rosa - which is almost consumed by the S storm). This morning it shows Rosa holding some strength enough to produce some strong NW winds which would hold the next storm back. Of course the storms crossing the mountains of Baja I'm sure are not calculated into the computer forecast. Pretty much a waste of time, I know. You can't predict the weather?

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 04:43 pm
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RichD
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For anyone that does not have the links....


Windy.  Click on the wind option on the right side.


https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-04-12,19.994,-109.995,5


eebmike, a lot of information in one place...


http://www.eebmike.com/


Geary's commentary on sonrisa.net


http://sonrisanet.org/Yes_Tropical.html


And the main source, National Hurricane Center


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac



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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 05:50 pm
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MARIGOT
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Thanks for the links, Rich.
Here is the link for Accuweather, too.  They update it a couple of times a day.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 06:54 pm
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Jordy
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Rosa is messing up my Jeep plans. Might have to drive the truck down, which isn't nearly as much fun.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 07:59 pm
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RichD
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Hard to say how much rain SC will get. Probably more rain from Nogales to Hermosillo. Maybe wear some foul weather gear in the Jeep.

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 08:09 pm
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Jordy
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True story.  Some of the worst rain I've ever been in was coming up the hill out of the Mariposa crossing, on several occasions.  Was doing my impression of a salmon driving up a river while the windshield wipers were trying to keep up.  


I'm not going to melt, but with half doors and a soft top, no point in filling the Jeep with water unnecessarily. 

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 Posted: Thu Sep 27th, 2018 08:11 pm
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Jordy
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I already know how it's going to play out, granted I"m still going to watch the weather and decide next week, probably the morning I'm headed out. If I take the Jeep, it will rain cats and dogs the whole time, regardless of what the weather says.

On the other hand, if I take the truck, blue skies and sunshine. :D

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 Posted: Fri Sep 28th, 2018 02:39 pm
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RichD
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The main body of Rosa will pass well North of San Carlos when it turns East.  Rocky Point might get a good soaking.  Spin off moisture is blowing East and I would expect rain in SC by late tonight and into tomorrow.  In the image you can see what will be Sergio starting to fire up.  Sergio should stay well off shore for now also.  Lots of rain for Arizona next week.  Take the Jeep anyway (nice Jeep by the way) but you will get wet.  

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 Posted: Fri Sep 28th, 2018 02:44 pm
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RichD
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The forecast track.  By the time it approaches land it will not be a hurricane but will certainly dump a lot of rain.  

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 Posted: Fri Sep 28th, 2018 04:38 pm
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long time resident
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I can't wait!

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 Posted: Fri Sep 28th, 2018 07:05 pm
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Jordy
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The weather people in Phoenix don't know what to do. They think it's going to maybe start raining Sunday, an 80% chance Monday, and amounts are all over the board. Some models are showing 2-3" in Phoenix. We need it, just not all at the same time.

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 Posted: Sat Sep 29th, 2018 04:24 pm
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RichD
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Rosa weakened yesterday then started gaining strength.  She should start to weaken quickly as she moves over cooler waters.   Outer bands starting to reach SC now.  The path will take it well North of SC.  Maybe some rain but no wind associated with Rosa.  

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 Posted: Sun Sep 30th, 2018 04:00 am
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RichD
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No significant change in track. It is slowing down but will still have a little pop when it hits the Baja. Maybe up to 50mph winds. Then the wind should back off but will dump a lot of rain. No problems in SC but not a good time to travel in Arizona on Tuesday.

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