San Carlos, Sonora, Mexico Forums Home 

San Carlos Mexico Forum
Welcome to our forum. In order to post in our forums you must be registered. Please take a minute to register to enjoy the full benefits of the forum. Registration is FREE and your information is kept private. When registering, please make sure your email address is entered correctly-if incorrect, you will not receive your validation message. Please do not use your email address as your user name for your own privacy and security. Gmail account users should check spam or trash folders for our validation message after initial registration. We also suggest you add host@sancarlosmexico.com to your white list.

This message board requires you to register in order to post new topics, reply to topics started by other users, start polls, or vote on polls. As a registered user, you can edit your own posts, upload photos and view our photo gallery, and send private messages to other members of the board. Registered users can keep track of the topics they are interested in, and receive e-mail notifications when someone posts to one of those topics. Registered users can choose a theme and setup a profile, to include hometown, email & web address and avatar if desired.
We do ask that you post in the appropriate forum-look over the subjects and topics of all forums including the mercado section before making your first post. Posts in the wrong forum or not related to San Carlos may be moved or deleted without notice.
Please take a moment and register to enjoy all the benefits of the forum.
Bienvenidos!

 Moderated by: bartmanaz Page:    1  2  3  4  5  6  ...  Next Page Last Page  
New Topic Reply Printer Friendly
Lidia  Rate Topic 
AuthorPost
 Posted: Tue Aug 29th, 2017 03:31 pm
  PM Quote Reply
1st Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
Not yet a named storm but the area of disturbance will probably spin up soon.  This is one to watch as models show it headed close to Cabo.  No need for alarm yet but keep an eye on it.  Already producing rain around Manzanillo.  Until it forms into a cyclone the models are not very accurate.  Should have a better idea of the track by tomorrow.  

Attached Image (viewed 513 times):

Capture.JPG

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Tue Aug 29th, 2017 04:03 pm
  PM Quote Reply
2nd Post
MARIGOT
Member


Joined: Wed Aug 5th, 2009
Location:  
Posts: 968
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Thank you

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Tue Aug 29th, 2017 05:31 pm
  PM Quote Reply
3rd Post
johnmoore
Member
 

Joined: Fri Jun 21st, 2013
Location: Alameda, Ca.
Posts: 903
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Years apart, but I believe, Katrina, Jimena, and now Harvey, all in the same week, as August meets September. Go west Lidia, go west...

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Tue Aug 29th, 2017 09:49 pm
  PM Quote Reply
4th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
It has organized enough for them to predict a path.  If it goes West of Cabo it should not be a problem.  At this point not predicted to reach hurricane strength.  

Attached Image (viewed 470 times):

Capture.JPG

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Wed Aug 30th, 2017 03:07 pm
  PM Quote Reply
5th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
This will be a storm to watch closely.  Only a small change in track would take it up the gulf.  It is still unclear what the impact to SC will be but some rain is likely at the very least.  The most likely scenario has it passing Cabo to the West and getting in colder water. 

Attached Image (viewed 419 times):

Capture.JPG

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Wed Aug 30th, 2017 10:05 pm
  PM Quote Reply
6th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
I would advise folks to make preparations.  I would not think this would be a severe wind event but there is a possibility of getting a lot of rain.  The track forecast has shifted just a little to the East and if it goes East of Cabo into the Gulf, it will be trouble for SC.  Keep in mind, the actual forecast should not mean much more than moderate rain.   But you have time now to prepare for possible heavy rain and i would suggest you do.   Might see some outer bands by Friday and Saturday would be the worst.  

Attached Image (viewed 399 times):

Capture.JPG

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Wed Aug 30th, 2017 10:54 pm
  PM Quote Reply
7th Post
Ian948
Member


Joined: Fri Jul 10th, 2009
Location: San Carlos, Mexico
Posts: 1180
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Way to go RD !

Good idea to be prepared ! Even if not needed - time to check the generator , cold beer is staple of life !

:)


Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 02:45 am
  PM Quote Reply
8th Post
frankiej
Member


Joined: Sun Jul 6th, 2014
Location: San Carlos, Mexico
Posts: 731
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
rich, it's 7:45 PM wed. i just looked at the latest eebmike, it looks more like it is heading our way!

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:07 am
  PM Quote Reply
9th Post
Danodamano
Member


Joined: Fri Jan 6th, 2017
Location: Aurora CO / San Carlos MX, USA
Posts: 80
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Lidia at 7:30 pm

Attached Image (viewed 362 times):

D7CF26DC-988E-41DD-BF14-DC470AFA7A91-14502-000013EC5AA99278.png

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:24 am
  PM Quote Reply
10th Post
Ocean Camp San Carlos
Member


Joined: Mon Nov 28th, 2005
Location: San Carlos, Sonora, Mexico
Posts: 37
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Well, sometimes history repeats itself. I have posted to his forum what I am about to post now:
I'm not going to suggest what you should do about the storm that is approaching. That is the job for Mexican government officials. But here is what I am doing right now. 
I am boarding-up my windows with  5/8-inch plywood and 2X4 framing. I have a lot of glass across the front of my home and I live directly on the beach. I have a plan to leave my home if the storm is greater than a tropical storm. I have purchased extra water, flashlights, batteries, candles, and basic foods that do not need cooking, nor refrigeration. I have filled my car with gas. I have gathered important papers, medications, and significant personal items and put them in two suitcases so that everything is ready to go if I need to leave my home.  
I have arranged for a safer place to stay, away from the ocean and storm surge if I need to evacuate my home. I have made arrangements to take care of my pets. I have been to the bank and have some extra cash if the ATM's are out of service for a week. I have notified friends where to find me and I have asked neighbors to check on my home if I am unable. That's a start.  
I am taking these actions for my own peace of mind and I am basing this on my observations and past history in San Carlos. You should find your own comfort level and do what you think you need to do.... and if on Friday of this week we all wake-up to a sunny and bright day and basically Lidia was a non-event? -- then great. At least I know that I am ready in case Friday is not so rosy. 
Some other things I am thinking about. What if the electricity is out for days, as happened in past hurricanes here? Food in my freezer and fridge will spoil. I may not have a land-line phone that works. My cell phone will need charging and if the electricity is off? How to do I charge my cell phone? I may not have internet for communication, nor information about the storm or where to find help.  
I may not have air conditioning or even a fan -- and it has been over 100F recently. I may not be able to find ice. If the electric power is out regionally, will I have CEA water pressure? I know that many roads, including our major highway 15 has flooded in the past. It may not be passable without LONG delays, maybe for days. I know many roads in San Carlos flood, and many friends and neighbors may be stranded. How would I find a doctor if I get hurt or sick? Do you have an ample supply of your prescription medications? How would I get reliable information about the storm and places to go for assistance? 
These are some of my concerns tonight. I'm not being negative, but I don't want to be caught flat-footed either. I suggest that all of us use common sense and take the actions to do what we think we should do --  and do it now. 
Mark, Ocean Camp San Carlos 
p.s.When Harvey met Lidia:  “hey, a week ago i was a tropical storm off the coast of yucatan, mexico!…”  "Am I having a flashback?"

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:28 am
  PM Quote Reply
11th Post
frankiej
Member


Joined: Sun Jul 6th, 2014
Location: San Carlos, Mexico
Posts: 731
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
OCSC, that is sound advice!!!

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 12:26 pm
  PM Quote Reply
12th Post
Hook
Member
 

Joined: Wed Oct 26th, 2005
Location: Mexico
Posts: 3334
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Thanks for posting this information, Mark.

Certainly the greatest chances of heavy rain are Friday and Saturday, but I wouldnt be surprised if some of the outer bands of moisture being thrown off from Lidia reach San Carlos this evening. Much will depend on whether winds and heat off the land will assist or impede the development of strong cells.

By Saturday and Sunday, it will be inevitable.

In terms of winds, the latest estimate from this AM gives us a 20-30% chance of having tropical storm winds. But with these storms, it is rarely about the wind. It is the amount of rain that usually causes the destruction. SC could get 3-5 inches (8-15cm). Not a dangerous amount IF it is spread out over 24-72 hours. Potentially dangerous if it is concentrated in a short period.  One cell at my house in the Ranchitos dumped rain at nearly 6"/hour last year, for about 20 minutes. The runoff was instantaneous. 

Last edited on Thu Aug 31st, 2017 12:59 pm by Hook

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 02:31 pm
  PM Quote Reply
13th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
Preparing for the worst is not a bad idea. The worst case scenario is for Lidia to cross over the Baja and gain strength in the warm water of the gulf. It is forecast to remain over land and weaken but the Baja is so narrow and this storm is so large that it could still have some power through the weekend. By large, I mean the area of rainfall not the wind speed. My opinion is that rain will be more of an issue than wind but we all know how much damage heavy rain can do. The idea is to make preparations now before it is too late. There is a pretty good chance that SC will only have light winds and a few inches of rain and I hope that is the case. Unfortunately places like Mulege will get heavy flooding again. Keep an eye on this one.

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:38 pm
  PM Quote Reply
14th Post
johnmoore
Member
 

Joined: Fri Jun 21st, 2013
Location: Alameda, Ca.
Posts: 903
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Cabo now:

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cabo-san-lucas-playa-el-medano

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:54 pm
  PM Quote Reply
15th Post
maryt
Member
 

Joined: Tue Aug 14th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 765
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Rich, is there any way for you to predict wave action?

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 04:55 pm
  PM Quote Reply
16th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
Should be coming on shore in a few hours. Expect some rough sea starting Friday. Big rollers coming from the South. Right now there are sustained winds over 50mph. Since the wind moves counter clockwise around the center, there are now winds from the South over 40mph in the mouth of the SOC. I am not sure how long it will take for those wind driven waves to reach SC but they will be here. Should be obvious but this would be a terrible time to go across. If you have South facing ocean front property, prepare for these waves.

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 05:01 pm
  PM Quote Reply
17th Post
RichD
Member
 

Joined: Wed Dec 7th, 2005
Location:  
Posts: 2046
Status: 
Online
Mana: 
This site can give you an idea of what the wind is doing if you zoom in on Cabo..

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-104.20,24.62,1696

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 06:36 pm
  PM Quote Reply
18th Post
Ian948
Member


Joined: Fri Jul 10th, 2009
Location: San Carlos, Mexico
Posts: 1180
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
We are now in Yellow level , Central Sonora Green and Northern Sonora Blue. 

Worth watching now landfall may hopefully push more West or reduce intensity - fingers x'd !


Look forward to updates later today :)

Back To Top PM Quote Reply

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 09:25 pm
  PM Quote Reply
19th Post
390pony
Member
 

Joined: Thu Jul 17th, 2014
Location: Tucson, Arizona USA
Posts: 354
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
Played it safe and pulled my boat out of the water for a few days.

Back To Top PM Quote Reply  

 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 09:54 pm
  PM Quote Reply
20th Post
Hook
Member
 

Joined: Wed Oct 26th, 2005
Location: Mexico
Posts: 3334
Status: 
Offline
Mana: 
MaryT, here is the windyty wave prediction for our area.
https://on.windy.com/gkna


Following that is the NOAA/NHC sea state prediction page for our area. Appears there are 18-22 foot waves off the Cape.




Back To Top PM Quote Reply

Current time is 04:29 am Page:    1  2  3  4  5  6  ...  Next Page Last Page    
San Carlos, Sonora, Mexico Forums > Topical Forums > San Carlos Forum > Lidia Top




UltraBB 1.172 Copyright © 2007-2014 Data 1 Systems