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Lidia  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 09:58 pm
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Danodamano
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Mana: 
That is really a cool wind map......I just had to bookmark it.

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 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 10:03 pm
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Hook
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Mana: 
That was actually the wave map on windy.com. If you want the wind map, look at the clickable icons along the right margin. One of them is for wind.

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 Posted: Thu Aug 31st, 2017 10:06 pm
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Danodamano
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Mana: 
I was actually commenting on this link posted by RichD
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-104.20,24.62,1696

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 12:16 am
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RichD
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Tough conditions in Cabo right now. They took it on the nose again. Some wind sites are predicting 40mph wind in SC tomorrow. I would suggest preparing for that but my opinion is that sustained winds tomorrow will be more like 25mph, still not pleasant. I think the worst wind will be Saturday. I remain cautiously optimistic that wind will not be of the destructive kind. It will not be a pleasant weekend, well some exciting kite boarding but not pleasant for sun worshipers. Take the patio umbrellas down but I don't see extensive damage in SC unless you live on the water. Tomorrow should be the key as it is uncertain how much the storm will weaken when the eye gets into the mountains along the spine of Baja.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:01 pm
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RichD
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Winds are still very strong at 65mph as Lidia moves up the spine of Baja. The good news is that steering conditions should keep it out of the gulf. She should continue up the Baja and eventually move back over the Pacific around Mag Bay. SC will start seeing the outer bands today. Right now, strong winds extend way East of the center, we will see if that holds as Lidia moves North. I still hold the opinion that Lidia will be more of a picnic spoiler than a destructive force in SC but would advise to prepare for some strong wind on Saturday just in case.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:33 pm
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Fairwind
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The latest satellite loops seem to show the center of the storm moving into the Sea Of Cortex and not staying over the Baja land mass or turning west out to sea...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:44 pm
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Ian948
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6.30 am location

Attached Image (viewed 214 times):

IMG_0245.PNG

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:48 pm
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Ian948
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Alert level raised to Orange yesterday evening - all schools closed today.

Expected wind arrival around 11am according to 6.30 am forecast on one site

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:50 pm
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johnmoore
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Post #26, is a very interesting display by noaa, as it contradicts all of it's other visuals....any thought RichD?

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 01:59 pm
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RichD
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It does look that way but I think it is because the storm is 'lopsided' in the sense that the half that is over cold Pacific water is not generating the amount of rain as the half that is over the SOC.  That will continue but as the day progresses, the cool air from the Pacific will circulate counter clockwise into the gulf.  Will still produce plenty of rain but anything under 3 inches is about what a normal monsoon storm would produce.  I believe that the path of the center will follow predictions based on the influence of a mid level high area in Arizona keeping it from going East into the SOC.  If it does come into the SOC, all bets are off.  Always good to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.  

Attached Image (viewed 212 times):

Capture.JPG

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 02:11 pm
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frankie
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Mana: 
the satellite pictures look a lot scarier than the tracking charts! 

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 02:19 pm
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RichD
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I agree. The infra red images are precipitation and in this case do not really show the center of the storm. By the way, I am not there. Would like to hear first hand accounts of surf conditions.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 02:31 pm
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RichD
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I am not sure how accurate these wind predictions are but this site allows you to look ahead at wind patterns. It is indicating that the worst winds will be late tonight and into early Saturday.


https://www.windy.com/?24.507,-111.819,5

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 04:03 pm
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RichD
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Latest update shows no change to the path... good news. Still strong winds of 60mph but predicted to weaken throughout the day. I had thought that peak winds would be on Saturday but now I think the worst will be tonight. Center of the storm is on the West edge of Baja even though the IR images don't look like it. Hope the power stays on, stay safe.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 04:19 pm
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RichD
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By the way, peak winds will be ESE which is lucky for some, not so good for San Francisco beach.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 04:21 pm
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Hook
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Mana: 
Here is the webcam page on sonrisanet. Many are down, even before the storm. I cant get the La Posada webcam to work, either. But the one at Playa de Cortes, over in Miramar, is working and shows the general weather conditions. It is a bit protected from the swell over there.

http://sonrisanet.org/Webcams/WebcamGuaymas.html

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 04:29 pm
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MARIGOT
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Oh, yeah.  That camera view is very tame compared to the HUGE rollers coming in to La Posada beach.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 04:29 pm
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RichD
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Geary at sonrisa.net is a real weatherman. Unfortunately they found a spot on his lung and he is undergoing treatment. Hope he does well. Looks a little gloomy in San Carlos.

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 05:03 pm
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RichD
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For those that follow Rada on Facebook, he is showing live videos of the surf. Big waves!

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 Posted: Fri Sep 1st, 2017 05:14 pm
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frankie
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the waves are hitting hard and entering charlies rock. here at puesta the tide is up but not the craziness in san carlos "weird"!!!

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