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Direct flights from Tucson to Guaymas  Rate Topic 
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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 02:59 pm
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Bullshipper
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The larger tourist resorts in Mexico all have subsidized airfare and infrastructure to compete with other major destinations.

You can fly cheaper to Paris from LA than you can to Hermosillo or Guaymas, so that is one of the main reasons that people who work, have money, and limited time off are gong to bypass hard to reach locations.

So drive in retired folk will continue to rule year round in SC in my opinion, and I will be surprised if these direct flights are offered more than the peak season from Thanksgiving through semana santa after they see their revenues their 1st year. year.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:19 pm
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frankiej
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drive in retired folks can not vote here, have little or no political influence and their attrition rate is increasing at a high rate,  due to mortality or moving back NOB for health reasons!!
the 2 san carlos's;  1) the sleepy village during the week many refer to!  2) the weekend packed with party'rs, music blasting all night long,  lines at all the OXXO's & extras,  traffic, ect;!!

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:27 pm
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RichD
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Seems like the newspaper piece that inspired all this was more PR than journalism. Maybe time would be better spent having a margarita on the beach than wringing hands over how this is going to ruin our little town. Some will want to get a head start on being outraged but don't get upset if others don't join in.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:37 pm
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azbandit66
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   I for one don't want to see the town change, but it is. I live in the Bahia and after the new nightclubs opened by Soggy Peso traffic is horrible and dangerous on weekend nights. There seems to be a lot more younger crowd lately.  Nothing we can do about it, we're just visitors here in their country.
   I also really doubt the airline will have any long term impact. From what I've read its about $400 a ticket one way. I have a hard time seeing them fill enough seats to keep it profitable.

Last edited on Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:40 pm by azbandit66

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:39 pm
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Bullshipper
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SC is great. Enjoy it.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 03:47 pm
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Many, Many years ago, before Ballemar bought his house, a Canadian group would fly into Guaymas on chartered planes a couple of times a week, and stay at the Posada, Sol-y-mar, and the Fiesta. The hotel rooms were booked solid. There were tours into Guaymas, there was river rafting, diving trips, shopping trips, tennis (club med had just opened), and there were a couple of discos, activities, and a lot of action around town. Prices didn't go up because of this. There were plenty of people spending money in town. The more money spent, the more money the businesses made, and didn't have to raise there prices. As far as the cost of vets in San Carlos, I found the price very similar to Hermosillo and Guaymas, and I didn't have to drive my animal as far. They have less clients due to the small population of the town. I welcome the flights, feeling that it will give the economy a much needed boost to the town, and the more, the merrier. If the prices are too high for some, they can shop in Guaymas.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 04:05 pm
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frankiej
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brovo LTR!!!  many here only see the flights for tourists or the maquiladores!  i know many of the wealthy nationals here,  most have homes in tucson and phoenix!  their children are students at the U of A & ASU!  flights for them will be a convenience,  eliminating the drive! i hope filling the seats will not be a problem,  i hope the problem is obtaining a seat!  the more seats filled the more need for additional flights,  the more additional fights the more need for other carriers! 
that brings competition and attention!  the competition will inspire better rates,  the attention will bring government funding!   

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 04:50 pm
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firemanjohn
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A walk on the beach today or a drive to town is enough to keep most NOB tourist away. I've never seen trash like this in any "tourist destinations".  

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 05:06 pm
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ballenamar
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LTR: You don't live here any more. Things may have changed. The information on costs of vets comes from a Mexican national who lives BOTH in Hermosillo and San Carlos. She is appalled at the price differences. She confirms that vet prices are DOUBLE in San Carlos. An American who lives here confirmed this fact only yesterday. This person is also appalled at the price gouging and states that the only time she does business with a "gouger" is when she needs a vendor who speaks English.  

As an educator, the total focus in my life since 1982 has been working with Mexican youth who live in the area. I really don't care who visits San Carlos as long as they don't drive up prices that affect me.  My point throughout this thread is that price gouging takes place with tourism and this affects BOTH the anglos AND the Mexican Nationals who make San Carlos their home.  

This gouging attitude is also prevalent with real estate people who consider that the price they want a property to sell for is "value" even though there are few willing buyers (e.g. LTR's property). As an American, in I am schooled in the economic law of supply and demand. Down here, the economic law is "if I build it, people will come". There are many skeletons of buildings and empty homes that attest to this way of thinking. So, why not attract foreigners and nationals who will buy a home at a reasonable price and make a life down here? Many have done it elsewhere in Mexico. In my view, tourism isn't a route to long term economic economic growth or stability in our area. But, building a community is !!!

Last edited on Mon Sep 19th, 2016 05:10 pm by ballenamar

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 05:45 pm
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maryt
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I think what we have to acknowledge is that San Carlos is not just another colonia filled with full time residents. We have full time residents (what % would be interesting) but we also have many, many part-time residents both gringos and nationals. And we have many week-end tourists coming for the clubs and restaurants as well as short time vacationers. My experience with tourist spots here and in the US is that they are more expensive. Real estate rental and sale prices also impact prices of goods. Look at urban prices compared to rural in the US. We pay a premium for service providers that can speak English because of supply and demand. I have used both vets here in San Carlos and not felt at all gouged but I expect they may be more expensive that Hermosillo or Guaymas due to rental costs if nothing else and we are probably paying a premium for the English. For me, it is not worth the price of gas to go into Guaymas to a vet and I am not sure my Spanish would be up to it. However, I love eating out in Guaymas but, still, I find some places are way cheaper and others not so much. CanĀ“t wait to get back down.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 08:20 pm
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Wy Ynot
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A little off subject but we have new vets in town. Very caring and knowledgeable. Husband and wife team have years of experience and their own clinic in Guaymas. The wife is here on Beltrones beside Megacable. Very reasonable in price, both clinic and grooming. Next, back to Paradise Air Mexico. Stopped at their office an hour ago. They have schedules from Phoenix and Tucson to and from Guaymas. Let me say that ROUNDTRIP Phoenix to Guaymas is 369.00 US, 389.00 US Tucson to Guaymas and return. First flight will be Oct. 10. 2016. Two flights per week and then 4 in November. There are 10 hotel/condos involved. Business in Guaymas and Empalme as well. Support it and maybe they can remain in business. If anyone remembers, the round trip air increased to near 1400.00 US from Denver before they shut down all US service some years back. I think it's great for the community. There will not be enough influx on anyone to overrun anything!! You may stop and ask your questions personally at their office in El Faro Plaza on Beltrones. There were 2 gents and 2 ladies there this afternoon. English and Spanish spoken. Ron

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 08:57 pm
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frankiej
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there are 2 parts to "the laws of supply and demand"!  one can not work without the other!!!!!
regarding real estate prices;  i have been a builder here for 14 years with 36 years of experience!  i doubt i could build 80/90 % of the houses on the market,  with zero profit for the prices they are selling at!!!!
it is and has been a buyers market,  for years!!

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 11:20 pm
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Richard Baca
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Ballenamar and Frankie, It is true that the real estate "wannbes" in SC list houses for prices above and beyond what a proper market analysis would indicate. In the real estate business there are three methods of establishing market value: (1) CMA which stands fer "comparative market analysis". The basic tenets in CMA are of course, comparable properties and, an impossibility in SC, sold and closed sales of at least three comps within the immediate past 6 months. The "wannabes" in SC want to emulate NOB CMA practices and in order to do so, USE LISTED PRICES as their comps! In other words, they are massaging each other and trying to pull the wool over the new buying public's eyes! And they are oh so proud of it! (Dazzle 'em with brillance, and baffle 'em with BS!)
(2) The only market analysis method that works in small custom home markets such as ours, is the "cost replacement" method. As far as I know, I am the only American that has done done this in SC for the past 24 years. It requires training in the methods and building experience in the pertinent market. Basically what one does is measure the house, figure current construction costs, apply standard straight line depreciation and add in the current lot or land value (and furnishings as the case may be). Depreciation(?), I'm often asked; don't houses usually "appreciate"? Well, only inasmuch as building materials appreciate over time. Many older homes will need upgrades, and remember those older homes without grounded electrical outlets and older plumbing issues, etc.? The straight line depredation factor usually takes care of this. It's the lot or land that actually adds value to a property over time and of course there may be unique architectural or other non despreciable components.
(3) The third method of property price analysis is the "capitalization rate" method, and this is applied mostly to commercial property and is a course unto itself.
And yes, the laws of supply and demand are evident... in the gross over supply at the moment. The trick is to find a motivated seller and use the r/e agent for broker to navigate the closing maze.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 19th, 2016 11:51 pm
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frankiej
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richard,  i had to have a cig. before i could respond to your post!
1) CMA well the is good if you are dealing with tract homes, which there none here!
2) cost replacement,  which is what i was referring to in my earlier post!
there are a zillion factors for costs; lets start at the first thing needed, the lot!  is the lot on flat land like in the 2 country clubs,  is it on a slope,  is it on the beach.  just those 3 types have a wide range of costs concerning the construction of the foundation!
flat roof , pitched roof, dual pane windows, single pane windows,  central air or mini-split,  i can go on and on!
the facts concerning the real estate agents here in town,  the signs you see the most of are the most successful! their success comes earned!  they have repeat customers and referrals from their customers!

Last edited on Mon Sep 19th, 2016 11:52 pm by frankiej

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 01:41 am
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Richard Baca
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Like I said Frankie, cost replacement method takes training and experience. As you point out, it's multifaceted. CMA in SC is just the razzlers dazzlers and bafflers massaging each other with both the listers and sellers as victims.

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 03:13 am
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ballenamar
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But what about lots?? We've got a bunch of people who own lots in Bella Esperanza. Nothing has sold for a very long time. They paid way too much and prefer to hold for a miracle instead of accepting the mistake and taking a lower price. Same goes for many empty houses. Sellers way overpaid when they bought (thanks to the zeal of buying in paradise before simply renting for a year and real estate people) and now hope for a miracle. 

Where is "value" in any of this??? "Value" is established when a willing seller and a willing buyer consummate a transaction. In my view, all other forms of appraisal are voodo arithmetic. I fired a real estate agent who handed me a sheet of local  listings and called the list an "appraisal".

Last edited on Tue Sep 20th, 2016 03:16 am by ballenamar

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 03:47 am
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Richard Baca
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"Bella Esperanza"... don't you just love the name? "Beautiful Hope" is the literal translation. Yes, many overpaid out there. The developer and many r/e agents/brokers that should have known better, over promised based on "hope". Well, reality should now have set in. There is an oversupply of Bella Esperanza lots and practically no demand. Oh, and if one wants to buy from the developer, yessiree you still can! And also, don't forget all those new lots out beyond the old Cub Paradiso, and the land supposedly going up for sale by or through Pradise Air/Properties? Caveat Emptor everone!!

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 03:54 am
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frankiej
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i refer all of you to the paradise canyon thread!!!
same story different thread!

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 02:25 pm
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johnmoore
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Even tho this tread has morphed a bit, I think a lot of people expressed some interesting insight to there reasons for being here, there hopes for the future, there desire to hang on to that part of SC that brought them here in the first place, and their hopes of having made a recoverable investment. I really have appreciated all that has been said, and if there are anymore thoughts, would love to hear them........even if it is about the projected new air service..jajaja.

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 Posted: Tue Sep 20th, 2016 04:05 pm
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frankiej
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you can fool all the people some of the time,  and some of the people all the time,  but you cannot fool all the people all the time!
Abraham Lincoln 

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