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Newton  Rating:  Rating
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 Posted: Thu Sep 1st, 2016 03:06 pm
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RichD
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Mana: 
Now just Invest 90E, the disturbance down South should spin up to tropical storm strength by the weekend and become Newton.  This one may track closer to mainland Mexico.  Too early to tell at this point but worth watching. 

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 Posted: Fri Sep 2nd, 2016 03:00 pm
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RichD
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Mana: 
This storm has a good chance of impacting the Sea of Cortez.  This is still in the early stages and sometimes computer models are not accurate but you can see that there is a possibility of some severe weather on the Baja.   If you are considering a fishing trip early next week, keep an eye on this.  Still designated Invest 90E.  Expect it to be TS Newton in a few days.  

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 Posted: Sat Sep 3rd, 2016 06:06 pm
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johnmoore
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Mana: 
Richard, have heard from many, that we could be in for it (lots of rain) early next week. These were mostly Nationals who were citing reports they had heard. You got anything?

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 Posted: Sat Sep 3rd, 2016 06:16 pm
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RichD
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This time of year you could have weather from sources other than hurricanes so I am not sure what they are hearing. The Mexican weather service seems to be pretty quick to pull the trigger on storm warnings. This storm has the potential of being very strong. Some models show it being around Cabo by Tuesday or Wednesday. Predictions at this early stage can be way off. Once it starts spinning it will become more compact and it's direction will be more predictable. Some computer models have Newton going up the SOC. Let's hope not. Should be better information by Sunday.

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 Posted: Sat Sep 3rd, 2016 06:54 pm
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johnmoore
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Mana: 
Thanks for that, keep us posted please.

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 Posted: Sun Sep 4th, 2016 05:22 pm
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RichD
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Mana: 
Manzanillo area is going to see lots of rain and flooding. Still unclear how strong this storm will get as it moves slowly North. I would advise making preparations for a major storm even if it does not happen. Some forecasts of steering conditions next week have the storm going West or Cabo but then crossing over the baja and entering the SOC. That would be maybe Thursday. It has not followed predictions so far so stay tuned to your favorite weather site.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 12:27 am
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RichD
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Mana: 
National Hurricane Center now has a predicted path now that it is a tropical depression. Still not a named storm but it will be soon. Follow this carefully, this is the real deal.

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Last edited on Mon Sep 5th, 2016 12:27 am by RichD

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 01:34 am
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RichD
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Mana: 
By the way, note that forward speed is predicted to pick up and impact to SC would be more like Tues night/Wednesday.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 04:20 am
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RichD
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Mana: 
Here comes Newton.  Forecast to hit Cabo on the nose.  If it wiggles a little East it will come right up the gulf.  Still a lot of variables but some bad luck could see it get very close to San Carlos.  Make preparations, this is not a drill.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 05:19 am
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Ocean Camp San Carlos
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Last year our hurricane season ended like this: I share the words of Jeff Masters, a respected blogger on major weather events:

“After growing extraordinarily quickly to Category 5 strength, and striking the Mexican coast less than a day later, Tropical Depression Patricia is rapidly dissipating--leading to one of the most abbreviated life cycles on record for any Category 5 tropical cyclone. At 11 am EDT Wednesday, Patricia was a minimal tropical storm, with 40 mph winds. A mere 36 hours later, Patricia packed winds of 160 mph, eventually reaching 200 mph--the highest reliably measured surface winds in any tropical cyclone on Earth. After 36 more hours (at 11 am EDT Saturday) Patricia’s sustained winds were back down to 35 mph. As with all tropical cyclones, Patricia’s landfall was its downfall: the hurricane slammed into rugged coastal terrain while accelerating northeastward, which quickly shredded its low-level circulation.”

There was more. Mexican government agencies acted very quickly. They evacuated people. They put all levels of emergency responders into action: Military, police, hospitals, utility companies… they used not only radio and television, but social media to alert the public of the danger. It was a huge mobilization of public and private resources. Hotels evacuated guests to more secure structures. The time-line was very short. bottom line: it worked.

Yes, Patricia made landfall in a sparsely populated area. But the mobilization and resources at hand were remarkable. That Patricia was one of the most powerful storms in hurricane history will be remembered. But the more remarkable aspect for me was about the accuracy of the forecast, and the astounding response of emergency crews. In place. Ready. —Mark

———— ————— —————

There are parallels to this coming event. The storm that is forming now has a name.

I'm not going to suggest what you should do about this storm. That job is for Mexican Government officials. But here is what I am doing.

I am boarding-up my windows with 5/8-inch plywood and 2X4 framing. I have a lot of glass across the front of my home and I live directly on the beach. I have a plan to leave my home if the storm is greater than a category 1 hurricane. I have purchased extra water, flashlights, batteries, candles, and basic foods that do not need cooking, nor refrigeration. I have filled my car with gas. I have gathered important papers, medications, and significant personal items and put them in two suitcases so that everything is ready to go if I need to leave my home. I have arranged for a safer place to stay, away from the ocean and storm surge if I need to evacuate my home. I have made arrangements to take care of my pets. I have been to the bank and have some extra cash if the ATM's are out of service for a week. I have notified friends where to find me and I have asked neighbors to check on my home if I am unable. That's a start.

I am taking these actions for my own peace of mind and I am basing this on my observations and past history in our area. You should find your own comfort level and do what you think you need to do.... and if on Wednesday of this week we all wake-up to a sunny and bright day and basically the storm is non-event? -- then great. At least I know that I am ready in case Wednesday is not so rosy.

Some other things I am thinking about. What if the electricity is out for days, as happened in past hurricanes here? Food in my freezer and fridge will spoil. I may not have a land-line phone that works. My cell phone will need charging and if electricity is off? How to do that? I may not have internet for communication, nor information about the storm.

I may not have air conditioning or even a fan -- and it has been over 100F recently. I may not be able to find ice. If the electric power is out regionally, will I have CEA water pressure? I know that many roads, including our major highway 15 has flooded in the past. It may not be passable without LONG delays for some days. I know many roads in San Carlos flood, and many friends and neighbors may be stranded. How would I find a doctor if I get hurt or sick? Do you have an ample supply of your prescription medications? How would I get reliable information about the storm and places to go for assistance?

These are some of my concerns tonight. I'm not being negative, but I don't want to be caught flat-footed either. I suggest that we all use common sense and take the actions to do what we think we should do -- and do it now.

Mark, Ocean Camp San Carlos

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 02:14 pm
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frankiej
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post #10 mark,  this is sound advice!!  i know those of us who experienced "jimena" are taking your advice!  the likely hood of the power going out even if just for short time is high!!  since jimena i have never let any of my vehicles even get close to empty,  i will be topping them both off today!  
many residential and business's are located in what would be NOB considered flood plain.  
during jimena i had over a meter of water flow through my office.  my office is located just behind telmex.
lets all be safe and secure!!

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 02:45 pm
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kiteboarder
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I'm hoping for a low impact storm but just in case I'll have my kites and surfboard ready. I would like to top off my tinaco but there has been no water on H street. Be safe, but enjoy.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 03:14 pm
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RichD
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Always a good idea to make preparations. Newton is not forecast to reach hurricane strength but if it goes East of the cape all bets are off. Will depend on how much it weakens due to interaction with land. As we learned with Jimena, rain can cause a lot of damage even if winds do not reach hurricane strength.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 03:59 pm
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frankiej
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http://www.weatherunderground.com  updated their forecast from 77 mm early this morning to 109mm at about 8:00 am.
they are forecasting 109mm tuesday and 20mm wednesday that is over 5 inches of rain in a 24 hour period!
i topped off my jeep CJ5 with gas and later today i will top off my cherokee!

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 04:06 pm
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RichD
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Latest advisory has Newton reaching hurricane status (barely) as it approaches Cabo. They will take a hit again. In recent storms the hotels in Cabo either turn off their webcams or show a nice sunny day so as not to discourage tourists. Sounds like people are taking this seriously which is good.

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 Posted: Mon Sep 5th, 2016 04:16 pm
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frankiej
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just went on http://www.eebmike.com  ,  there is good reason for concern!

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 Posted: Tue Sep 6th, 2016 12:15 am
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RichD
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Now a hurricane, Newton is moving fast towards Cabo.  Make your preparations tomorrow if you have not already. 

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 Posted: Tue Sep 6th, 2016 12:18 am
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RichD
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Note that sustained winds over 60mph are possible near the eye but if the predicted track holds, expect 40mph+ winds coming onshore. There will be some storm surge and big waves. If you decide to go kiteboarding Don, be safe.

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 Posted: Tue Sep 6th, 2016 01:19 am
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johnmoore
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Richard, as shown in post #17, on that same page top left, you will find an icon to click for potential rainfall. Have you studied that? What do you think?

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 Posted: Tue Sep 6th, 2016 01:41 am
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frankiej
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Mana: 
when can we expect to start seeing rain??

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